Quote from: DutchBrat on April 17, 2013, 10:44:12 AM

Quote from: JimiQ84 on April 17, 2013, 10:41:25 AM

Quote from: DutchBrat on April 17, 2013, 10:37:01 AM

Quote from: JimiQ84 on April 17, 2013, 10:35:25 AM

Quote from: shibaji on April 17, 2013, 10:28:59 AM

Quote from: shibaji on April 17, 2013, 10:26:28 AM

(6.6 + 5.5 + 4.6 + 3.9 + 3.3) + (2.8 + 2.4 + 2.0 + 1.7 + 1,4)
= 23.9 + 10.3
= 34.2

So, based on Kano's prediction, 23.9 btc earned in first 3 months, and another 10.3 earned in next 3 months. Total 34.2 btc over next 6 months. Assuming BFL ships 0 units in next 6 months.

Good luck.

Looks like people who are paying 30-40K for Avalon are not calculated risk takers ? But what do I know. Even if btc goes to 1000 usd / btc, someone is better off just holding onto btc itself - not to mention what happens if it goes to usd 10.

16% difficulty rise is not sustainable :-) This calculation predicts difficulty 40M after 6 months and total hashrate around 280-300TH/s. I don't think that will happen.

Asicminer itself has 200TH/s coming out of the foundry in the next few weeks....

those auctioned units are part of that 200TH/s

It still means total hashrate will be around 300 TH..... either because they are mining with them themselves.... or because their customers are....

So that means 300 TH without BFL in about 2 - 3 months time

I really would like you are right but i highly doubt its possible for Asicminer to stamp out such a hashingpower in such a short timeframe. It would be cool though...