Quote from: kano on April 17, 2013, 11:12:12 AM

Quote from: JimiQ84 on April 17, 2013, 10:35:25 AM

Quote from: shibaji on April 17, 2013, 10:28:59 AM

Quote from: shibaji on April 17, 2013, 10:26:28 AM

(6.6 + 5.5 + 4.6 + 3.9 + 3.3) + (2.8 + 2.4 + 2.0 + 1.7 + 1,4)
= 23.9 + 10.3
= 34.2

So, based on Kano's prediction, 23.9 btc earned in first 3 months, and another 10.3 earned in next 3 months. Total 34.2 btc over next 6 months. Assuming BFL ships 0 units in next 6 months.

Good luck.

Looks like people who are paying 30-40K for Avalon are not calculated risk takers ? But what do I know. Even if btc goes to 1000 usd / btc, someone is better off just holding onto btc itself - not to mention what happens if it goes to usd 10.

16% difficulty rise is not sustainable :-) This calculation predicts difficulty 40M after 6 months and total hashrate around 280-300TH/s. I don't think that will happen.

Block 217728 -9% 18:41:27 23-Jan-2013 UTC 2968775.3320751
Block 219744 +10% 11:19:06 05-Feb-2013 UTC 3275464.5865656
Block 221760 +11% 00:47:50 18-Feb-2013 UTC 3651011.6306932
Block 223776 +20% 17:42:44 01-Mar-2013 UTC 4367876.0008422
Block 225792 +11% 08:32:26 14-Mar-2013 UTC 4847647.1520656
Block 227808 +38% 12:00:25 24-Mar-2013 UTC 6695826.2825963
Block 229824 +15% 17:40:43 05-Apr-2013 UTC 7672999.92016
Block 231840 +17% = 9000000 (near future)

N.B. the dates are block header times, which can be at most 7200 seconds different to the real time they were found

The current estimate is 16.9565% with 38 blocks to go

Anyway, my point being that a 16% estimate seems far from unlikely considering the first Avalon was 20-Jan and ASICMINER started ~14-Feb?
You really think both Avalon and ASICMINER are going to STOP making ASICs?

It's easier to rise difficulty 16% when the value is 4M than when the value is 8M. And you are claiming difficulty will rise 16% when it's sitting at 34M.