Real world dynamics is too complex for complicated conspirational plans to work out, or even to "see it coming", but some people will think A is coming, and some people will think B is coming. When A is coming, the first lot thinks they are smart. Within their lot, part of them will see C coming, others will see D coming. If C is coming, those that saw A and C think they are even smarter.
you don't believe in machiaveli ?

Of course. I think everybody is following Machiavelli. But it is not because you PLAN like Machiavelli, that things work out as you planned, simply because there's a lot of competition in applying his evident suggestions.
In fact, it is Machiavelli's universal success that makes that such plans don't work out as expected and that the world is a complicated place.
I'm not saying that nobody is making plans. I'm saying that many people are making plans, that obstruct one another, and lead to unexpected results.
You think we really know what we are doing or we are governed by things who escape all control ?