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This bubble burst in 5 days instead of 5 months. ...
My numbers would be that $100 is the new $5 for the following months.
My numbers would be that $100 is the new $5 for the following months.
Bubble bursting follows a double exponential rate of decay, which is the opposite of what happened in the run up. Post peak, one would expect the price halving time to increase - thus the first halving from 266 down to 133, then the second very quickly down to 66.5. In contrast to your view, I think that the having time to 33.25 will be some weeks away - if the rate of decline slows down as in a typical bubble collapse.
What is your basis for the growth rate of the bitcoin economy? A linear regression of the log closing price on Mt. Gox starting in 2010 to present suggests a bitcoin economy growth rate of 4.8x annually = 580%. That is a fantastic growth rate, but the market gets ahead of that when doubling several times in a few months.
Mt.Gox first day = 0.06, yesterday 73. No linear regression, just (days_open/30)th root (73/0.06) ~1.26, hence 3 months double.
It is more than you think. If we continue this way, $300k is expected in 2016
You're drawing the line in the wrong place like everyone else who makes graphs on this site. End the numbers in late 2012 before the bubble started when it was around 10
And that forgets that bitcoin doesn't just go up magically because you whisper "bitcoin" in someone's ear. It gains investor confidence as more sites and companies start accepting it as a form of payment.
Unless you're serious about your belief that the total bitcoin economy will be worth 3 trillion dollars in just 3 years. In that case there's probably no point discussing it with you.