Quote from: Peleus on April 19, 2013, 01:20:26 AM

Quote from: jubalix on April 19, 2013, 01:04:10 AM

Quote from: dree12 on April 19, 2013, 12:48:19 AM

Two days past the biggest one-week crash in Bitcoin history. What have we learned? What should we expect next?

Two important things we learned: one, Bitcoin isn't really stable yet, and two, a bubble will pop as soon as everyone stops calling it a bubble. But is the bubble done?

In my opinion, yes. A glance at Bitcoin's brief history reveals that at no time did the correction from a rally to all-time heights, bubble or not, dip below the high from before the rally. That is, the only rallies that were smaller than their corrections were rallies that are corrections themselves.

Normally, there would be months of downtrend after a new all-time high (even more if the rally was big). However, the record-breaking crash of late happened to shave off almost the last month of growth. And that last month of growth started from $32the point where the previous all-time high rested.

My claim is that the rally did not start until one month ago when $32 was brokeneverything before that was a correction from $2. If history holds, this bubble's popping will not overtake the rally that caused it. And if the rally started at $32, then it looks like the bubble has finished its popping.

I'm not saying that we will have an easy path to $200 by any chance. If the last bubble was any indication, it could be years until we reach $260 again, even though there's less ground to be made up this time. But I will claim it's easier to get to $260 than it is to $40, which at the current price means the price is likely to recover.

So let us wait and see.

we only dropped from 200 whatever because of a dodgey exchange. This event has given great impetus for other exchanges to open and, the market will be come more resiliant

Rubbish, if there was confidence in the price then the downed exchange wouldn't have had an effect.

nope.jpg not when 70% of newbs have never experienced a downturn/or any access to their ability to exchange for FIAT, this will happen cyclically as exchanges get attacked and the next set of newbs sell out and go ape. This is further compunded by their being just one large exchange. Over time though people will become jaded to ddos, and the price will more or less stay the same....in fact many of the older hands will welcome them as a chance to pick up cheap coins from newbs. The time to sell is at near or full market penetration if then....which will be in the 5 - 100 Trillion mark divided by the number of CryptoCurrencies that will make it...and that's a way off yet.....me I am buying up PPC.....it is by far the best and least understood CC demonstrated by the fact no one has copied it yet. PPC is at where BTC was at 2 years ago and may surpass BTC.