I certainly can't argue with your hopes and dreams. From a fundamental perspective, in trying to value this is an investment, setting aside any emotional bias, I have to price in the nightmare scenario. And what if the price reverses? Drops to 500. And coinlab gets a chunky settlement. Have we any indication as to what Kobayashi's bill will be? If a US trustee administered a $400mln bankruptcy for 5 years that number would be in the 10s of millions for him and his staff.

All I'm saying is, if you're going to do scenario analysis, consider them all, I did. And then I'd like to make at least 15-20% return to hold on to this for x number of years with zero liquidity, which I'm using as my required rate of return to price the instrument.

I will concede that given the recent rally, while as a contrarian I think is completely propped up, does increase expected value for me. Last trade we did was @ 36%.

If you think it will pay 70 - Then really you should be countering at 50-55. Why is what you think going to happen perfectly valid but my thinking is a joke? Easy to sell something, much harder to make an offer.