Quote from: bitcoinvest on May 10, 2017, 03:22:32 PM

Quote from: Durden_T on May 10, 2017, 02:43:14 PM

Quote from: bitcoinvest on May 10, 2017, 07:59:37 AM

Regarding the proposal,i personally found it like joke....
As the price goes up there are many scenarios that we will get more than 70% in payout... and in one very dream scenario if price goes more that 2000 and stay there then theoretically
we can have the 100% payout.. so the offer here is way out of thinking!

I certainly can't argue with your hopes and dreams. From a fundamental perspective, in trying to value this is an investment, setting aside any emotional bias, I have to price in the nightmare scenario. And what if the price reverses? Drops to 500. And coinlab gets a chunky settlement. Have we any indication as to what Kobayashi's bill will be? If a US trustee administered a $400mln bankruptcy for 5 years that number would be in the 10s of millions for him and his staff.

All I'm saying is, if you're going to do scenario analysis, consider them all, I did. And then I'd like to make at least 15-20% return to hold on to this for x number of years with zero liquidity, which I'm using as my required rate of return to price the instrument.

I will concede that given the recent rally, while as a contrarian I think is completely propped up, does increase expected value for me. Last trade we did was @ 36%.

If you think it will pay 70 - Then really you should be countering at 50-55. Why is what you think going to happen perfectly valid but my thinking is a joke? Easy to sell something, much harder to make an offer.

I have to admit that you did spend much more time to answer to me from the time that i spend to write before.
There are some points that maybe you are right and others that not. I can comment that the offer of 50% is something that i would for sure take time to think. the numbers i gave is only for example.
anyway, more is happening from what you mentioned and i do think that we will receive more than 50-55% you wrote. if all goes well for all of us one day in the near or long future will be here to write how much we did received. the fact that as the time pass more and more people willing to buy our claims is something that need put us on thinking all of us we have claims there.
i wish you all the best in your investment!

Analyzing bankruptcies and making markets in them is what I do, so I do take it seriously. Once again I am not saying you will get 50-55, but it is what I would ask for if I thought ultimately this would land somewhere in the 70s. Your issue isn't my price, its that you're afraid of not getting a good deal, because you don't know what a good deal looks like. I am sympathetic to this. The key is to identify as many potential outcomes as possible, assign probabilities to them, and calculate an expected value, it would be subjective no doubt. Build in a return for taking on the risk, and discount it for x number of years. Just saying I think it will pay this, it will pay that, means literally nothing. It's all guesswork

As a rational investor, you would have a hard counter to sell. Allow me to illustrate.

If the US government offered to sell you a note that would pay $100 in three years, the safest counter party in the world. What would you pay for it today? Taking a modest return of 3% a year, that would get priced roughly 91-92. We believe this to be a slam dunk, because not paying its debt would trigger a cataclysmic geopolitical series of events.

Let's move down the list. Take that same example and change it from US to Microsoft. You'll want a slightly higher return. Maybe you pay 87-88 for it? This is still assuming without a shadow of doubt you get a 100% in three years.

How about JC Penny or Sears? 75-80?

How about a company already in bankruptcy? What's the penalty for them not paying you back? They are already bankrupt. Now introduce lawsuits, the Government of Japan, the volatility of BTC, the illiquidty premium( I can unload Microsoft, US paper), Misc costs, transaction costs of transferring claims. And the fact that I think 100% is just as likely as 0%.

I can understand not agreeing with my analysis or wanting to make an undiversified bet by sticking it out. Just trying to highlight the thought process