Quote from: GotBitCoins on April 21, 2013, 04:47:15 AM

I really appreciate this thread.

It gives a mult-years perspective on what's going on -

It seems like in the case of the BitCoin it's a war between the enthusiasm of new technology and the speculative mania that can burn it.

We know that many times when a new technology is introduced - we have this wave of early adopters that are so enthusiastic about it that they take the price up exponentially. Then after it cools down, it starts rising again slowly till there's public acceptance.

It seems like in the case of BitCoin we are witnessing not only one exponent followed by public acceptance, but more like waves and waves of public acceptance, each time going into exponential Mania and then dropping again and then drawing a bigger circle of acceptance and then mania again and then drop and so on.

So it makes sense that if (IF) BitCoin makes it - then we shall witness every 2 years an Exponential Mania, followed by despair.

If so then we are right now at the Bear following the Mania - that should last many months till the price shall become undervalued again and the chartists will have to adjust their exponent...

(Specifically right now we are in an unsustained post Mania suckers rally)

Yes, one needs lots of patience, to sit on the sidelines for several months ready with cash to get a good entry price - but then it seems like almost the sky is the limit...

GotBitCoins.

i also like this thread, because it is closer to how I think about this, than most of bull/bear non-sense. And your post is excellent.

Your take seems very reasonable to me. This is what I expect as well, and why I am playing the long (patient) game with bitcoin. Series of explosive exponential bulls (over the next couple of years) as more people start to see the potential and usefulness of bitcoin, and new services come on line,and adoption gets more ubiquitous. Each likely followed by crashes and consolidations. Some of these crashes may be followed by extended lows below recent support (meaning many month recoveries), and others may hit support and consolidate there before going higher. All depending - as you said - on who is in the game at the time and the fundamental view at the moment.

This time? We shall see. I'll be ready with cash if we consolidate much lower and will hang on tight if it keeps moving up. Ready for anything...or so I think Grin