Quote from: Trillian on April 21, 2013, 11:44:17 AM

I did some napkin calculations and I think that at the current LTC value it might be better just buying LTC directly, rather than buying a new mining rig.

LTC Mining: 7970x2: 1400 kHash/s
Mining Rig Cost: ~1000 USD for 7970x2

LTC/day@1.4GH/s: 3.86 LTC/day = 10 USD/day
LTC/month@1.4GH/s: 116 LTC/month = 300 USD/month
LTC/year@1.4GH/s: 1410 LTC/year = 3600 USD/year

[Exchange rate USD/LTC = 2.58 USD for 1 LTC]

Mining Rig Breakeven (power cost ignored): ~4 months

Three years ago BTC was valued almost similarly than LTC is today, BTC:LTC is now 1:44.

I ask myself, what fundamentals are going to be in play in the next 3 years.

1) The big BTC miners, like ASICMiner, have so much momentum going atm, i.e. enjoying major mining profit and funding from their IPOs. One cannot hope to get in front of them or the ASIC wave. The result is that the entry-level individual pool share is going to rapidly diminish, as the high-momentum mining giants carve out bigger shares and the mining difficulty rise.

2) BFL, Avalon, KNCMiner are going to push +100GH/s ASIC units like clockwork on production lines in a years time. Only the players with big funds to invest will get on the forefront of this wave, leaving small players in the dust.

3) The players who have already invested in GPU miners will definitely have to reappropriate their rigs, and LTC is perhaps the best option. The memory-intensiveness of LTC will make it difficult for the industry to push out high-hash production-line units, ASIC it seems is not suitable for LTC mining. This is a very interesting dynamic, on one hand we have BTC mining that is going to be dominated by a few players and on the other we have highly decentralized LTC mining that is performed by the everyman on the ground.

4) Crypto-currencies are going to grow despite crashes, due to mistrust in fiat and ease of use. Alternatives like LTC are going to have their place. I expect the 1:44 BTC:LTC ratio to steadily reduce over the next years.

How should one position oneself given these dynamics (not exhaustive)?

1) Get in while you still can, on the dips, at least with play money that you can afford to lose.

2) Play with miner shares like ASICMiner-PT.

3) Earn 28% APR BTC interest as a bitcoin lender.

4) When LTC mining becomes sufficiently profitable (+10 USD/LTC ?) invest in some mining rigs. At least GPU's have resale value if profitability drops later on.

I think the is the best first post I've ever seen, you're getting whitelisted.

Also I'm guessing OP was talking more about people who already have GPUs to mine with. I don't know the math, but once ASICs hit big time I'm guessing the GPUs won't be efficient enough to keep up. It'll really only be worth it if you have free electricity, and even then depending on the difficulty it may take too much effort to be worth it.