Quote from: noone000 on May 24, 2017, 09:55:50 PM

Quote from: ktabb on May 24, 2017, 09:32:26 PM

Hey guys, I posted a pretty long and in-depth analysis of my view of the current state of bitcoin here:

In short, I think we are in entering a bubble but there is still room to run. Would love to hear if someone disagrees with the reasoning that I posted and why!

Also check out my bitcoin paper trading app! www.demoinvestor.com

EDIT:

It won't let me post the link properly for some reason. Here it is:

https://www.facebook.com/TBCPredictions/posts/881948598612117 copy and paste, switch the B and the T

I took a look at your post and I thought your reasoning was fairly sound, although your estimate of a 4000 USD peak in price sounded like a complete guess. This rapid increase in the value of the bitcoin not only mimics the crash in 2013, but also the massive stock market crash of 1929. The value of stocks were soaring before this point, but once prices started to fall, a massive wave of selling occurred and prices plummeted, causing many people to lose everything. In the short-term at least I do not believe we will see a crash in the price because the demand for the BTC is continuously growing and I do not think most investors plan on selling all of their bitcoins anytime soon.

I wouldn't say that $4k is a COMPLETE guess but you are right that it is kind of a guesstimate. As I mentioned in the post, it is extremely difficult to predict the magnitude of a bubble. If it is in proportion with 2013 then it would go to around $7k-$8k, so I suppose all I can say with any amount of confidence is that I don't think it will exceed $8k before crashing down again. However, I do think that it will have trouble reaching a market cap that high unless maybe an ETF gets approved, allowing more investors to easily pour money into bitcoin.