With segwit activation on august 1st, I think a split is almost certainly going to happen.
what SegWit activation on August 1st?! there is only BIP 148 UASF currently on that date which won't activate SegWit unless it gets enough support and we don't know if it gains enough of it or not right now.
also you don't know what you are talking about when you say "split is certain" as i said we don't know anything right now.
I thought UASF is where miners who will not be signalling to SegWit will be dropped, or I mean not part of the Network, or will be part of another network. So even if it don't get many votes, the network splitting woill happen. The same as BU, we don't know what may happen, but I think BU is more scary than this.