Quote from: lebing on April 26, 2013, 04:24:45 PM

Quote from: batcoin on April 26, 2013, 03:14:43 PM

Quote from: lebing on April 26, 2013, 02:59:14 PM

Quote from: SAQ on April 26, 2013, 02:40:48 PM

Quote from: Kveras on April 26, 2013, 02:16:03 PM

1. Everything fundamental is growing stronger each day.

What exactly has happened to make the fundamentals stronger? People don't care about DDos as much as they used to anymore, but even then the last time Mt got Ddos'ed for more than an hour the price shot down - and then quickly up.

Exchanges are really weak at this point. 4 of them have been shut in one week because banks closed their accounts. What happens if mt's account is closed? We go from 137 to 5.

Until we get a robust exchange which is likely within a few months, I think the price is hugely overvalued. It might in the very short term go up to 160 again, but the trendline is down for a bit because it is just too risky to invest at 140 and those that might buy would be very jumpy.

Moreover, the press attention reaches a saturation point. Most people have herd about bitcoins now. Most certainly everyone that works in finance has herd about them but even your mom and dad has herd about them with bitcoins having been mentioned in the news all over. Whoever has wanted to buy has done so or will finish doing so this month or next.

Institutional investors might think of getting on board, but stocks give good returns, are certain to be worth at least half their price and are safe for the investment manager to invest in. On the other hand, bitcoins is of the highest risk, the price has no stability so the investment would need to be actively managed which is quite expensive and the market is quite small for big money so it is even more difficult to buy the thing which is quite a big consideration considering how difficult it is to buy even for the avarage joe.

For these reasons, unless we get some big good news, the bear has killed the cat.

There are many fundamental reasons why it's shooting up. It started with Reddit & Wordpress and most recently its the fact that China has taken the lead in bitcoin-qt downloads. http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/Bitcoin/bitcoin-0.8.1/bitcoin-0.8.1-win32-setup.exe/stats/map?dates=2013-04-20+to+2013-04-26

Is this only for 0.8.1 or does it take into account earlier versions too?

Here's the data for all: http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/Bitcoin/stats/map

China isnt #1 there, but still quite strong. It could be that at some point in the quite near future the west might not be leading the charge in terms of adoption.

Thanks for that. It's interesting that ~1/3 of all downloads since Bitcoin's launch happened this year alone.