Quote from: ManBearPig on April 27, 2013, 09:26:56 AM

Quote from: oda.krell on April 26, 2013, 03:48:36 PM

Quote from: Mouser on April 25, 2013, 04:54:51 PM

9th Jan to 18th Mar: I concur, that is the inherent BTC increase rate.

Your blue line is correct IMO.

If the USD doesn't crash one BTC will have a value of ca 1000 USD in a couple/few years. The blue line will even give the predicted month. Spike(s) could see an ATH over 1000 USD months in advance of the BTC value actually being so.

Fine graph.

I don't get it, how do you get to "1000 USD in a couple/few years" from "blue line is correct IMO"?

ManBearPig says it represents a daily growth of 1.8%. Let's be cautious and start today at 120 USD. In a year from now, we would be at 80,745 USD. Kind of unreal, huh?

Welcome to the magic of compounding :) Google it, it really is called that for a reason!

Try it yourself using this great little tool (or make a little Excel sheet): http://www.miniwebtool.com/compound-growth-calculator

I don't extrapolate that far ahead on my recent graphs because it makes me look a little crazy but the figures are all there for you to see as in the case above: $13.77 is where what I believe to be the underlying trend of 2013 began.

That's a nice tool, but I didn't really need it, after all it's just [starting price * 1+growth rate^days].

Which, starting from todays price (conservatively estimated at 120), brings us to 80,745 USD after a year. Your calculator says so as well, by the way :)

But I get it, you're not claiming that will happen, but rather that the price of 13.77 would experience a year of daily 1.8% growth. But that was kind of the point I was trying to make: the problem with exponential growth is that it looks reasonable at first, but at some point, it inevitably breaks down because the numbers reached become unrealistically high.

So in summary, I'm not saying you're wrong for talking about 1.8% daily growth. In fact, in the past few months we might have well encountered it. My response was a reply to mouser who obviously didn't bother to calculate what it means if the price would experience daily growth of 1.8% for a few years -- he wrote it would reach 1000 then, when actually after a few years we reach ~3.9 billion USD per bitcoin :P