Not sure if your idea is correct.
A lot of people myself included struggle with this:
[....]
Two ways to calculate your expected earnings per second
1. (best method) yourhashrate / 2^32 / difficulty * bitcoinreward
2. yourhashrate / networkhashrate * network blocks per second * bitcoinreward
You were forgetting how blocks per second changes when the network hashrate increases and difficulty stays the same. And don't forget the part variance plays.
thank you, I can see that my idea correlates with method number 2. Although your explanation is quite clear compared to my effort to express the same thing.
Yeah variance in a short time period can be quite a lot. I have seen 1 block in 14 hours and then 14 blocks in the next 14 hours.