Quote from: Schrankwand on April 26, 2013, 02:07:58 PM

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Yeah I think you're right. Although if they went bankrupt now they wouldn't finish the boxes, and there'd be nothing to go to KS to buy

I think they'd buy a plane ticket to punch them Cheesy

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I suspect it's not that they can't easily disclose it, but that they don't want to. I'm just praying that there are a lot of cancellations and not 40,000 units about to be shipped. Also that it takes them a little while to ship. That they don't actually produce 400 units a day. Here's why: the slower the total hashrate rises, the better for those of us who purchased. The early adopters will get more time to recoup with their boxes. If they ship in order anyway, the hash rate will be the same when I get my box (barring what is added from other sources) whether they ship slowly or quickly. But if they ship slowly, and that speed stays slow after my box is shipped, the total hash rate won't rise as fast AFTER I get my box and I too will have more time to recoup.

The problem is, they shouldn't even sell that many units. If they pull it off well, there is no TH flood and people will be happy. Happy enough to buy the next 1TH/s miner. Then the 10TH/s miner, once that one is out of order.

There is a limited supply of money coming their way. If they are all smart, they keep making products, but keep the hashrates introduced into the market adding up SLOWLY rather than quickly. That way, the miners will make their money back, everyone is happy.

Market flooding is hard. The 1/3 shipping plan for example is an idiotic idea. Maybe fair to the first buyers, but it will lead to an almost immediate hashrate spike, leading to an immediate hit on the market. This is a singular, disruptive event for the market that is completely idiotic.

If they honour this, take a look at the market prices for days. Volatility is going to spike to some new heights. And then it cools down around a new market price. I am not going to make any predictions where this is though. Only that volatility is gonna skyrocket.

Personally I don't agree. I think BFL should intentionally flood the market with hundreds of units a day for some period of time, at least long enough to catch up on pre-orders. Sure it might crash the exchange rate, but most miners aren't going to be profit taking immediately after they get their rigs up and running... they'll do what they always do, quietly accumulate bitcoins, selling off barely enough to offset power costs and wait for a nice bubble to sell into. After the last speculative bubble I'm not too worried about the price dropping to single digits, there's enough support to keep it 'high enough' and avalon has already increased the hash-rate to the point that we'd probably only see one quick difficulty adjustment instead of the the 3 that were originally projected. and extra 3600 hundred coins for a couple days... not much at all really.