Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
And you forgot one more factor. That at that time, 80-85% of all trades were going through a single exchange that later proved to be completely insolvent and likely had been for several years.
I did mention that there are many exchanges now as compared to few exchanges back in early 2013, and even though MTGOX ended up being a significant differentiating factor in early 2014, I am not sure if the particular issues of MTGOX were further differentiating in early 2013 beyond the mere fact that there were fewer entry, liquidation and trading options at that time.
Maybe one additional thing that I forgot to mention, just for you, Torque, is the advances in numerology that have taken place in the past 4 years.. ? hahahaha
We cannot forget that, amirite? 
I read old posts where someone tried overlapping the 2011 rally with the spring 2013 rally. The overlap predicted a bear market, not the second winter 2013 rally to over $1000 that actually happened. Nobody knows what's going to happen next.
I am not suggesting that comparisons are not useful, and surely comparisons can be helpful in some regards as long as you take them with a grain of salt and attempt to account for other relevant and material factors.
At the same time, predicting probabilities of up, down or sideways is certainly not random, and some folks seem to have a lot better grasp on direction than others, even if sometimes they just lucky in their prediction or they end up being wrong in spite of calling the probabilities in the opposite direction correctly.