Quote from: rockinride on April 30, 2013, 04:56:33 PM

I came across this new site www.bitcoinprophet.com, I'm curious does anyone have any experience with this type of prediction site or know of any others?

The payout system looks weird:

Quote

All winners are paid from the pool of losers submissions in a "zero sum game".

Opposing submissions are paired in chronological order.

In the event there is no opposing submission to your winning prediction, you will receive a refund [...]

This means every bet pays even money, or a refund.

Suppose the Bitcoin price is rallying, and shows no signs of slowing down. It's considered about a 75% chance that it will continue to rally. 30 people bet 1 coin each on "up" and 10 people bet 1 coin each on "down".

If the price does indeed go up, as expected, only the first 10 people to bet "up" get paid. The other 20 just get their money back.

If the price goes down, the 10 people who bet "down" double their money, and the house takes the other 20 coins?

Is that how it works? That's what "Opposing submissions are paired in chronological order" suggests to me. If so, it seems unfair. The 10 people betting on "down" took a big risk but only double their money. And the house took no risk and takes 50% of the wagered funds?