Quote from: Inaba on April 30, 2013, 08:14:26 PM

Quote from: k9quaint on April 30, 2013, 08:07:31 PM

Quote from: Inaba on April 30, 2013, 07:51:15 PM

So you post the image of the hashrate as if it supports your opinion. However, even taking the most conservative number on that chart, 486 TH/s, a BFL single would still earn between .4 and .5 BTC a day. That's $70 a day, or $2100 per month. A 1 month 100% ROI at 486 TH network hashrate. If the network hashrate is anything LESS than 486 TH, your 100% ROI timeframe drops dramatically.

Yes... once again, only in the bitcoin world is a 1 month 100% ROI cause for panic and bitching, heh.

Unless the price of BTC in late July / early August (the date of the 486TH hash rate) is $14. Then it would take considerably longer than 1 month to earn your money back. And the hash rate does not stop growing at 484TH (as your analysis presumed). You are looking at more like 18 months to earn your money back.

Please cite your math for 18 months.

Fine, lets double the hashrate to 972 TH, that's .25 BTC a day, or $35 USD, or $1050. Oh no, 2.5 month 100% ROI! Stop the train! Holy crap!

All of this assumes you START with a difficulty of 972 TH. The fact that we would be starting with 1/100th of that or thereabouts means your 2.5 months is reduced drastically.

Purchases were made in USD yes, but USD from 9 months ago, When they were worth ~0.1BTC not 0.007BTC.
Everyone who sold BTC to buy a BFL product expected to be able to get more BTC out of it at some point in time.

I don't see it happening anytime soon, if ever (due to power consumption) - That is all.

Excerpt from 100th mine IPO :

Quote

If the chips fail to meet the expected performance the manufacturer will provide the mine
with additional boards to achieve the expected hashrate of 100TH/s (or 0.2GH/s per
raised 1USD). If the chips fail to achieve the expected power efficiency the manufacturer
will renegotiate the management deal with the hosting data center and compensate the
100TH-mine project for the losses. If the chips fail completely a substantial delay in
mining will occur. The manufacturer will undertake an effort to reimburse the investors
not only for the invested capital but also for the lost income up to the level of 10 USD per
invested 5 USD

Have you considered a lost mitigation contract resembling this ?