Quote from: HR on July 07, 2017, 07:52:47 PM

Quote from: Kopen on July 05, 2017, 07:28:42 PM

-snip-

Glad you like the thread!

BTC certainly ends up acting like a bank, especially if youre trading more actively with that youve [almost] always got something in BTC. Its the most conservative of all crypto to be sure, but instead of comparing it to bonds, Id compare it more with the likes of what IBM is to stocks.

LTC is a good middle ground crypto as you say. Good appreciation potential, and the same security, if not even better. Theres no reason why LTC shouldnt trade at its 4:1 ratio with BTC . . . which would be $633 at todays BTC price. And soon LTC will not only be just as solid on the safe storage side of things, but it will also be much more useful in a real world setting.

To be honest, I dont understand Ripple. Its so outside of what is decentralized and widely distributed that it has me scratching my head. Seriously, its a different beast that I havent studied, and I dont like getting involved in things I dont understand. I think valuation will be a more a function of business success though, as an intermediary, than as a cryptocurrency.

With respect to your last question, as BTC relates to fiat, it is DEFINITELY a GREAT hedge long term! That is what the basic crypto ethos is all about: hedging against fiat debasement (which we know is guaranteed for the foreseeable future). I would have just as much crypto in my traditional portfolio as gold, if I had gold (my gold is real estate and productive assets), but seriously, in terms of what your liquid portfolio looks like, crypto is a perfect fit - with its current phenomenal appreciation potential, even better than gold - for that fiat hedge.

Theres a nice info-graphic putting current crypto to total world money supply into perspective here: https://steemit.com/crypto/@cryptographic/crypto-boom-part-1-keeping-perspective

Its a proven product that works that has gained wide scale acceptance and that is still in its infancy, a hedge that also serves as one of the best long term speculative investments weve ever seen, thats what crypto is IMHO.

-long reply inc-

That makes sense. I'm assuming IBM is looked at as a stable, slow stock. I've generally stuck with ETFs--don't have a lot of experience picking individuals. Speaking of which, I've seen some of your posts re. how you choose to evaluate coins (dev teams, etc.), but how do you translate [base ratio (i.e. 4:1)] + [dev/value potential] into [250x growth]? I understand filtering out trash coins, but I have no idea where to even start to weigh, say, NEM vs Monero vs Ether rationally (much less a top-25 or 50 coin).

I tend to agree re. LTC. It feels like an asset that serves the same purpose as BTC but is less constrained by BTC's baggage. I actually have more faith in it as a project (though the market doesn't always value what's "right"...).

My main fear with with dropping entirely out of BTC (as opposed to a 10-30% allocation) is simply FOMO as it gains more consumer recognition (and, I expect, institutional $). In other words, I don't know if LTC can ever hit BTC's popularity. Maybe that's the wrong way to look at it though. It has more relative room to climb and if BTC ever goes moon to 50k, it's not like other major coins won't jump mostly in tandem. 20x is 20x.

And yeah, Ripple is very different and kind of antithetical to the original crypto movement. I like it because (I think) it plays by different fundamentals. I suspect it panders a bit to the global financial system rather than giving it the finger, which is simply an intriguing approach.

Entirely anecdotal, but today when BTC dropped 2.6% (at time of writing), Ripple lost 3.7% and most alts ate 6-15%. Technically, this would indicate that BTC was still a better reserve, but it makes me think most folks in Ripple are holders instead of traders, so it reads as low-risk (as far as that goes). Now, I have no idea what to do with that information. I'm not super risk-averse (I mean, this is crypto, ha)--should I be looking to allocate any of my portfolio to boring hedge-coins (BTC/XRP/$)? Now it's -3 for BTC and -8 for Ripple/Lite/Eth, so the theory now has as much evidence against as for.

I also totally agree with the point re. the long-term (woo cold storage). Ultimately, holding any reasonable coin will probably turn out favorably. Buuuuuuuuuut, let's just say I like your idea of a portfolio that navigates a 1y timeframe (because that's an eternity here). Do you just roll medium + high risk and dump the boring, 2x potential BTC? Tongue