Quote from: ElectricMucus on May 02, 2013, 11:16:18 PM

Quote from: wobber on May 02, 2013, 10:58:29 PM

ElectricMucus - what is your opinion on BTC and it's price in general. I'm asking because you're the most efervescent here and I really want to know.

It changed very much over the time.
Initially I was your run-of the mill bull, hoping that bitcoin will change the world. Then after witnessing the whole drama surrounding Bruce Wagner, the advent of Bitcoinica I became very bearish. That attitude hasn't changed since. Still I kind of anticipated this bubble, although I didn't really capitalize as much on it ("only" 10x before the pop, which I have increased some since). You guessed it I think we are still in Bubble territory.
I became largely annoyed by the thing we call the cargo cult: Guys playing financial experts, playing monopoly man and chanting the gospel of Bitcoin to be the biggest best thing ever.

I don't really believe in things like Bitpay, other payment processing, Bitcoin ATMs, Bitcoin "Supernodes" or Bitcoin stock exchanges. I think Bitcoin is an incredible useful tool as a financing model for non-profit websites, small webhosts, oh and of course Silk Road and the rest of the online black market. I also like Satoshi Dice and Seals with Clubs, great. Bitcoin has already found it's niche. It can be incredibly successful in it, possibly it can even sustain prices like we have seen this month in a few years.
But the gold-rush mentality has to stop. Bitcoin currently doesn't work as a currency not because it has insufficient market cap but because the crazy price swings make it unsuited to use it as such unless absolutely necessary.

That is as I would like Bitcoin to be, idealistically. For me personally the more dumb money there is in it the better. The volatility is incredibly predictable which is great for my way of trading, I kind of expect it to last as long as the current paradigm of the hype way of doing things holds.

People have forgotten the drama surrounding Bruce Wagner and Bitcoinica. The vast majority of investors today have never heard of either. The bubble was not a surprise. I was a little surprised on how and why it popped but in retrospect I shouldn't have been.

Yes. bitcoin is volatile. It is volatile because it has insufficient market cap. And it is volatile because there isn't a robust trading platform for it. For example. it is too hard to short it. I personally believe that coinlab can save bitcoin if they do it right. If they make it easier for the average (Amercian, at least) investor to buy and sell bitcoins and also provide a way to short bitcoins, we'll be much better off. Shorting will help make bitcoin much less volatile and easier trading will let more people get involved and raise the market cap. And as bitcoin finds it's niche. it will become less volatile as there will be less pure speculation. And right now it is almost all speculation.

I personally believe that bitcoin has a good future as an inflation-proof store of value once it gets less volatile.