Quote from: phelix on May 02, 2013, 08:22:28 PM

Why are you so sure of it going down? Media attention peaked but now a lot of whales know about Bitcoin. The whales take their time or just wait for an opportunity to enter.

Because there is still nothing behind bitcoin, except a few trading outfits. I don't see any fundamentals yet. Ask wordpress.com, namecheap.com and others how many bitcoins they have received. I guess very few. People are not using bitcoins yet. They are almost exclusively bought by people who want to get rich quick.

The "whales" are just more speculators. Currently the speculators are going out, not coming in. The bad ones, to be precise, because the good ones have been out for a while already. In other words, the crazy speculators are now giving up, after losing their shirts, and sell their bitcoins to the even crazier ones, eager to lose their shirts as well. This will not stop before at least a couple of months have passed.

It seems to take time for everyone to understand what a good speculator knew all alongthat after a bursting bubble the price will not consistently rise again before it hits rock bottom, which can take anything between 5 months and 2 years in the bitcoin market.

The interesting question is: Where is rock bottom? My guess is $20, but I would not be surprised if I saw a single digit price.

On the other hand, we can never be sure whether the run-up to the next bubble begins before this one has hit its own bottom. I suspect this is what happened after the 2011 bubble. That could mean a bottom around $30 this time. But these are wild guesses.