Quote from: Blitz on May 03, 2013, 01:01:53 PM

Quote from: hgmichna on May 03, 2013, 12:58:14 PM

On the other hand, we can never be sure whether the run-up to the next bubble begins before this one has hit its own bottom. I suspect this is what happened after the 2011 bubble.

That makes a whole lot of sense. I will have to think about the ramifications.

Quote from: hgmichna on May 03, 2013, 12:58:14 PM

On the other hand, we can never be sure whether the run-up to the next bubble begins before this one has hit its own bottom. I suspect this is what happened after the 2011 bubble. That could mean a bottom around $30 this time. But these are wild guesses.

The real problem is, we can never be sure that Bitcoin will have another bubble at all. I don't know whether it can survive the bear market with its position as Digital Cash #1 with things like altcoin competition (Litecoin is coming to MtGox, and Ripple might be a true future competitor) and problems like the block size limit. Thoughts?

Network effects! Remember Windows 3.1? Linux wiped the floor with it because it was technically lightyears ahead? Big players like Paypal are considering Bitcoin. Not LiteCoin, PPCoin, IxCoin, Namecoin or any of the other cheap knockoffs. Even if they have some parameter a tiny little bit more optimized.