Quote from: MiBambino on July 28, 2017, 04:11:01 PM

Quote from: RoyBatty on July 28, 2017, 03:08:54 PM

Quote from: MiBambino on July 28, 2017, 11:42:40 AM

Quote from: ngin-x on July 28, 2017, 07:18:24 AM

Quote from: MiBambino on July 27, 2017, 10:14:20 AM

I've read a lot of articles about people claiming bitcoin will be worth millions in the future, for example John mcAfee recently said bitcoin will be 500K in 3 years.
Now, imagine if this was true, and it was in fact 500K/BTC. The total market cap would then be 10.500.000.000.000, or about 10 trillion dollars. This is an unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Even if we ignore the market caps, imagine how many people would become rich? Millions would become millionairs, hundreds would become billionaires, all in a matter of 3 years. This would cripple the global economy as we know it.

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K, giving it a total market cap of about 630.000.000.000$, or 630 billion. The total market cap of cryptos would then be around 2 trillion if the some of the better alts gain more traction. I believe this is fairly realistic. This means BTC would have to rise with around 7 - 8$ a day.

Edited

Your logic is weird. People who invest early in successful companies/assets always end up with a shit lot of money later on. Early adopters are taking a tremendous amount of risk and they get rewarded for it justifiably. Think of the guys who invested in Microsoft or Apple very early on and held on to their shares for a decade. Those guys are rich beyond their dreams. Warren Buffet is one of the richest person in the world because he invested in all the right places at a very early age.

Why do you it think is any different for Bitcoin? Early adopters will get filthy rich (they already are). There will be a new class of millionaires and billionaires. Wasn't this case during the dotcom bubble too? Lots of people got crazy rich during that time. Same thing will happen with cryptocurrencies. People adopting now will get rich. For people adopting 10 years later, it will be just another asset giving 5-10% ROI a year. It's all about risk vs reward premium.

Unlike companies, cryptocurrencies have no national border. So while calculating marketcap we can't just compare it to Amazon or any other company. Cypto's reach is global and possibility of much large marketcaps.

Having said all this, there is no guarantee Bitcoin will be the dominant coin of the future. Most altcoins are technologically far superior to Bitcoin. It's questionable how long the network effect will keep Bitcoin at No.1. With the impending hard fork on August 1, the flippening might finally happen.

I wouldn't call my logic weird, per se. I just get fed up with a lot of people who think bitcoin will reach the stars because 'they want it bad enough and their heart is pure'. You must understand that in order for a bitcoin to be worth 30K, someone has to buy this coin believing it will go higher. True, there might be a lot of crypto millionaires and billionaires, but as soon as they try to cash out, the markets will drop again. That's the (only) problem with cryptos; the price will not be fixed, meaning that when someone takes out his fiat money, bitcoins price will drop. When one thousand holders all cash out 30K, the price will drop further.

Also, you can't compare an extremely young asset class to one of the most dominant and globally accepted assets in the world. Gold has been a standard for wealth and security for thousands of years. I agree bitcoin can definitely take golds place in a few decades, but you have to realise most people today are highly sceptical and conservative.

Last, the flippening will never happen. People are realising slowly but steadily that there's no company on earth interested in using ethereums token, they're only interested in the tech and possibly the chain. Plus, there are a lot of materials and metals better than gold, more valuable, more rare, more pure, yet gold remains the ultimate standard. Bitcoin will forever remain the first crypto, the one above all. Most future investors will be looking for a safe investment that gives a better ROI than the bank. They won't go looking for coins they don't understand if bitcoin is right in front of them. Also, august 1st will be a non event, the upcoming fork is planned for november. If anything, august 1st will have a very small dip, nothing more.

You're assumption is that 10, 20, 30 yrs from now, everything will still be valued in fiat. However, everything could very well be valued in crypto in the coming future and thus these crypto millionaires and billionaires wouldn't need to "cash out". My point is, you're making a lot of assumptions to come to a conclusion that BTC can't break a $30,000 threshold. If there is one thing we DO know it's that honey badger don't give a fuck about what you think it can or can't do.

Hadn't thought of that. To follow up on that point, I believe in 20-40 years oil will be virtually gone, so the dollar won't be tied to oil anymore. It can go back to gold, it can go back to something new, like cryptos, or crypto (or another currency) will take dollars place. Like someone else said, everything is becoming more and more digital. It's only logical currency will become digital as well. Maybe BTC could become the eventual standard, a global currency. Btw my post wasn't intended to make a point, I just wanted to stimulate healthy debate about the future possibilities

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