Quote from: DannyHamilton on July 31, 2017, 03:26:25 PM

Quote from: cellard on July 31, 2017, 03:13:50 PM

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when the reward is negligible (so that's in like 10 years) we will see problems,
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It's difficult to predict when the reward will be negligible.

In 10 years the subsidy will be 3.125 BTC per block.
At the current exchange rate, if the miner collects no transaction fees at all, that's nearly $8600 per block. Is that "negligible"?

In 11 years the subsidy will drop to 1.5625 BTC per block.
At the current exchange rate, if the miner collects no transaction fees at all, that's nearly $4300 per block. Is that "negligible"?

Of course, there is a real possibility that the exchange rate could go up over the next decade or so.

In 15 years the subsidy will drop below 1 BTC to 0.78125 BTC per block.
If the exchange rate is $300,000 per bitcoin, then even if the miner collects no transaction fees at all, that's still $234,375 per block. Is that ""negligible"?

Well, from what i've heard, looking at the algorithm curve, it "looks" negligible in paper. The line becomes too steep, almost straight.

You mention $300,000 per coin. Well then yes, that would be awesome for us holders, and we wouldn't probably have a problem, but we need to get there. The thing is, nobody knows, what we know for a fact is what we have now: how the curve looks like. The price is an unknown variable. Satoshi predicted that BTC will either be a lot or nothing, so I guess if everything goes ok, we should be at 6 figures per BTC in the next decade, when the line becomes almost straight, otherwise we may face serious problems. Let's just hope it's a self fulfilling prophecy and we hit these dreamy 6 figure per coin prices. Back in 2012 $1000 felt dreamy, who is to say we can't hit $100,000+.