Quote from: Franktank on May 07, 2013, 03:21:40 AM

Quote from: Jaxkr on May 07, 2013, 03:16:01 AM

Quote from: erschiessen on May 04, 2013, 03:00:40 PM

Awesome product.
Unfortunately, your price point is, to be blunt, retarded.

Yeah. Don't get it. I can get a Jalapeño from BFL (eww) for just a little more, and I get 5 GH/s, as opposed to 300 MH/s.

Yes, that is a valid point but be prepared to wait awhile. Is there a premium on ASICMiner products (compared to Avalon/BFL)? Yes, because you get your product within a week. If folks are willing to wait for Avalon/BFL for lower prices, feel free to do so. Question you have to ask is do you want your hash power now or later?

There are folks trying to get their batches of Avalon chips, making USB miners of their own. If they can do it, that's great! Competition for AM and they'll have to react to the market. However, ASICMiner will have technical support and quality control for their USB miners. Can the DIY Avalon USB miners say the same?

Delivery within a week eh? Rubbish. Ok who do I send by 2BTC to today to get delivery and be mining with it by 14th May 2013?

Wont happen. will take over a week to agree "wholesale" group buy's. then funds have to be collected, many will not pay, other buyers will have to be found. Then AM have to ship to the wholesale group who then have to organised smaller shipping to group participants. If yopu are lucky they will have pre organised packaging and shipping company.

Then of the wholesale units not kept and sold, thye have to set a "retail" price. This is not Apple so AM have no chance of fixing a "retial" price. So what is that? 3BTC, 4BTC? Ebay auction for highest $/£/ ?

Say most retail are sold on a seven day ebay auction. Thats at least 10 days to the "miner", if any will buy at retail at all as 2 BTC ius way to high wholesale as it is.

If many of these are actually mining by 1st week of June I will eat my hat!

Now lets look at difficulty. @ 10m difficulty now. in under 6 days it will jump to 10.5m. Not even wholesaLers will have these to mine by then.

By 1st week of june i would guess we will be around 12m difficulty at least, which will be about the time the retail customers recive them. No chance to make money! They have been fleeced.

No lets look at best forecast for the 2BTC wholeslares next week (maybe!). Starting difficulty will be 10.5m. USB unit creates 300m/h @ 3 Watts.

I like to use the Bitclockers calculator as it has a monthly % increase function built in for forecasting.

it's here : http://bitclockers.com/miningcalculator

So we plumb in the figures.

Hash Rate = 300m/h
Watts used = 3 watts
cost per KWH = 0.12 USD (default, adjust to suit, mine is 0.18)
cost of hardware $220 (2BTC currently approx)
timeframe = 90 days (3 months from delivery next week (yeah right!)
Value of BTC = 113 USD (leave it whatever it pulls as the current price)
Bitcoin difficulty, currently 10m but we have to use 10,540,697 due in 5-6 days.
Difficulty change = 30% (default is 2% but for sure from now on for a few years we are look at at least 30% increase a month as we have had since February in the ASIC arms race)
BTC Block = 25 (this is at least is fixed until 2016)

What results do we get?
24hr profit $1.62
1 month profit $48.64
3 month profit (90 days) $113.55
1 year profit $198.04.

So there we have it, even single use 2BTC wholesalers wont break even in 1 year per unit. and thats not including the cost of shipping and powered USB hubs too.

BTC will have to soar again to $200+ to make a profit, which no miner can control demand and hence price. No demand and price drops.

So lets look at 2 years out but changing timeframe from 90 days to 730 days.

You see the profit after 730days (2 years) is..................$203.18. Thats a whole $5 profit for the second year of mining with it!

And after 3 years, 1095 days, you make a total of $200.37. you are losing money on a 3w power use machine!

Basicaly just after 2 years time with 12c energy costs you will lose money and after 3 years with free energy you will not make any profit woth bothering with unless BTC shhots up to $200, $500, $1000. It could just as likely drop to $50, $30, $20.

If you buy these you are just doing it for love, makes no commercial sense at all.

M