Quote from: deisik on August 10, 2017, 07:07:12 AM

Quote from: jaysabi on August 09, 2017, 10:01:05 PM

Quote from: deisik on August 08, 2017, 07:39:06 PM

Quote from: jaysabi on August 02, 2017, 07:07:06 PM

Quote from: dinalo on August 01, 2017, 04:48:51 PM

Bitcoin's volatility will never be controlled, just look at other commodities like gold and see the big swings that happen there. Even fiat currencies often have large swings in their valuation.

"Big swings" is relative. Neither gold, silver, or other mainstream commodities, and especially not fiat, see volatility on the order that crypto has experienced in its short lifetime. Gold on rare occasions can swing 10% in a day, and that's a big move. Crypto routinely swings 20% or more in a day. Fiat is generally more stable than gold, and a few percent in a single day is a dramatic move. (Fiat during hyperinflation is another matter, it's not common and not normal, and is generally a one-way track.)

You forget to mention another commodity

Which perfectly cuts it as a mainstream one and which has volatility quite on par with that of Bitcoin. I obviously refer to crude oil which you kinda forget to mention. I guess it is as mainstream as mainstream itself is concerned, and it is not uncommon to see huge swings in the price of this commodity within a couple of days (up to a few dozen percentages). And it is not just about short-term volatility either. Long-term volatility of crude oil is also quite remarkable. But you certainly know that even better than myself

Yes, a perfectly fine addition to the list of mainstream commodities, but I wouldn't go so far as to say oil has volatility like bitcoin. How often does oil trade on swings as large as bitcoin in as short a time? Oil is comparative to gold and silver, but not bitcoin. In addition to oil, gold and silver have the ability to trade "a few dozen" percent in a few days time, but not nearly as frequently as bitcoin. Bitcoin's volatility I would put a whole magnitude higher, both in terms of the percentage swings, the time frame those swings occur (which are shorter), and especially in the frequency with which those swings occur in those time frames

I tend to disagree with this view

It could be claimed that Bitcoin is more volatile than oil overall, but certainly not at the scale of "a whole magnitude". We have seen Bitcoin crash like 6 times within a little over a year, from above 1,100 dollars down to below 200 dollars per coin in 2014-early 2015. But we have seen oil going absolutely the same path and basically within the same time span. Oil went down from over 120 dollars to 25 dollars per barrel in 2014. And this was not a one-off event by any means. In 2008 it fell from over 140 dollars to below 40 dollars per barrel, and before that we had seen huge price swings as well. How is Bitcoin's volatility time span shorter than that of crude oil if we consider the periods of maximum price swings? Regarding more short term swings, then again it is nowhere near being orders of magnitude difference (or just one magnitude). Right now oil seems to be more stable than Bitcoin, but let's not forget its wild swings just a year ago when its price jumped like mad pretty much Bitcoin style

I don't know how deeply you want to parse "a whole magnitude," but it's certainly not close. You've identified two very broad data points over a long period of time (which smooths out volatility and just becomes a trend) and that tend to support your claim, but if you drill down with any specificity you will see that it doesn't hold up. Bitcoin volatility crushes oil volatility as a rule in any specific period (monthly, weekly, daily), and in number of overall periods with significant swings. I've drilled down on monthly data below, but the disparity only grows larger the shorter you make the time frame (and since time is a component of volatility, shorter time frames equal higher volatility).

Average monthly price change Nov 2012 - June 2017

Oil 6.23%
Btc 29.33%

Number of 10% monthly changes:

Oil 12
Btc 36

Number of 20% monthly changes:

Oil 3
Btc 20

Number of 50% monthly changes:

Oil 0
Btc 6

There's no denying oil experiences volatility. But it's not in the same league as btc. Shorten the time frame and the volatility disparity is even more pronounced.