Quote from: Realist247 on August 12, 2017, 04:52:33 AM

Quote from: cafucafucafu on August 12, 2017, 04:36:47 AM

Quote from: Realist247 on August 12, 2017, 04:22:02 AM

Quote from: cafucafucafu on August 12, 2017, 04:00:31 AM

Quote from: Realist247 on August 12, 2017, 03:08:48 AM

Quote from: cafucafucafu on August 12, 2017, 02:48:23 AM

I think that the mining industry in bitcoin will soon be monopolised by China and other places where electricity is super cheap. The vision of bitcoin was meant to be what you stated, for sure, but bitcoin has been transformed into something else.

This is where I believe that there is a window of time of 2-3 years (but probably less than 2 years) where BTC must establish itself as a mainstream currency of the masses that can be traded on FOREX and justify the loftiest of predictions on its future price. If this doesn't happen in this timeframe, another altcoin (probably government backed...maybe initially backed by gold?) will emerge that will be accepted by the mainstream and FOREX markets. That's actually another point of debate that people miss...just because BTC was around for years already doesn't necessarily mean that it will last for the same amount of time in the future going forward. Of the 1000 or altcoins out there I predict that the majority will disappear much like companies in the dot-bomb era. As of now it will be a race forward to see which currencies do the right things at the right times that makes them survive and go to the next level. As much as people want to believe the contrary, BTC is not Coca-Cola when it comes to brand recognition. Relatively speaking they are not even in the same Universe.

From where I'm sitting, this is where the idea of Tulip-mania creeps in. In the case of cryptos, things happen so fast and due to their completely virtual valuation, things could be uglier than when Tulip bulbs went from a value worth an estate...to whatever tulip bulbs have sold for over time. This idea of "buy and hold for years" echoed on this forum like gospel shows how little so many understand about investing and valuation of their investment. And I'd bet that most of these people claim to be experts in BTC and other altcoins. Those are the first people who will panic in a very bad way.

Yes, that is a very nice breakdown of what I said and I do agree with you. Tulip-mania (For people who don't know, he is referring to the first major financial bubble) seems to be present with Bitcoin and will only keep on being present unless Bitcoin establishes itself as a mainstream currency, useable in real life and digital situations. There are already project, for example cryptopay, which makes this a reality, but to we need to make Bitcoin itself, with no other outliers, useable in real life situations. Right now it is just too hard.

Even if the price of BTC crashes back down to $500-600 (regardless of it remaining the most valuable crypto per coin) I think that this will put a chilling effect on its specific place in the market where it trades in that range for a long period of time, just like the first time it was above $1000. The fanatics will insist that it will come back...but I think the party will be over should this come to pass. I believe that the smart money will cash out should it fall below what I said in my first post above and look for alternatives. I believe that everyone here is correct on most of what they are saying...just that I think that the tortoise that wins this race will be not be the hare on which most are placing their bets.

I totally agree with what you just said there and will add some points of my own.
If bitcoin does drop to say 500-600, firstly I have lost a bunch of money, but there will be good in it. Right not transaction fees are the biggest reason that prevents Bitcoin from going mainstream, would you agree? If bitcoin did drop that low I wouldn't mind paying 10 cents in fees for a 10 dollar meal.

Maybe if Bitcoin forks again or the price drops again, we will be able to make Bitcoin mainstream.

In my experience it has been transaction fees that keep those with the means/cash on hand to even want to speculate on it...myself included (unless the price falls really soon and enough to justify a long position). They cannot, as I cannot, wrap their minds around it being of any use to the average person, especially in the majority of the non-Western world where a $2-3 transaction fee can represent anywhere between a day to 1/4 of a days wages. Imagine the hundreds of millions of Chinese that make about $12-15 per day when faced with even a $1 transaction fee. It's just not practical. Even most people in the West would opt for other means of payment rather than being assessed with a fee on top of the taxes that they are already paying (and are probably not happy about, especially with the 12-20% VATs out there). The ONLY way I see BTC becoming competitive on a masses scale is if the merchant absorbs the fee. Merchants will do this if only if they believe that it will increase their sales. But the problem is that margins are so razor thin in some industries, like restaurants, that adding an additional 1-2% on top of 3-4% Visa/Mastercard fees will be a deal breaker. The crypto that wins this race will get a company like Visa to absorb the cost so that neither the customer nor the merchant feels the pain of the additional fee. So you're right...this is a huge hurdle...probably the biggest of all....and a major deal between a cryto and a credit card company will make or break pretty much everyone currently in this sphere IMO.

Totally agree with you. Before when bitcoin was this big and had this much of a price, people would use bitcoin to pay for anything they could, since it was so fast, safe and had like transaction fees of 10 cents.

The issue we are facing here is, we all want bitcoin to rise in price, so we can be rich, but if it does rise in price, who would be able to pay a 10 dollar transaction fee for a 200 dollar transaction, except us, who are rich. We have to lose something in order to grow.

Quote from: Realist247 on August 12, 2017, 04:52:33 AM

The crypto that wins this race will get a company like Visa to absorb the cost so that neither the customer nor the merchant feels the pain of the additional fee.

That is a good point, I can imagine a world with Visa bitcoin debit cards. Good thinking!