Quote from: DooMAD on August 16, 2017, 05:59:16 PM

Quote from: nibor on August 16, 2017, 07:19:40 AM

99.99999% segwit will lock in in a few days. There is no controversy over this - miners, users, bitcoincore devs all agree they want this!

But the 1m->2m base blocksize increase is still very split. (I know segwit in effect enables 2-4 times more Tx in this 1/2Meg - but only as the wallets/users upgrade).

According to https://www.xbt.eu/ 90-95% of the miners are supporting the 2Mb blocksize increase that will occur at block 494504 (sorry could be out by 1 on this number as would have to reread the source code to be sure).

So we will get an extra chain in about 90 days time. And the chain with 90% of the hash power will be the chain with the 2Mb block size - so NOT compatible with BitcoinCore!

As I have said before this causes huge issues for the BitcoinCore chain - as blocks will take 10 times longer, and also it will take 20 weeks till the difficulty resets (rather than the normal 2 weeks). And even after the reset blocks will still be taking 2.5 times longer for another 5 weeks.

So the big question is whether the "Economy" will move to the BitcoinSegWit2x code or not - i.e. payment processors, shops, wallets etc... According to https://bitnodes.21.co/nodes/ they have not even started to - only about a few % have moved.

If we have a split where the "Economy" goes one way and the miners go the other will be mess!

Obviously 1000 things could change in the next 90 days...
1) BitcoinCore could release a patch to support 2Mb blocks!
2) Miners could stop supporting NYA (SegWit2x) - if this dropped below 50% I think the new chain would die very quickly.
3) Someone else could release a patch ontop of BitcoinCore that supports 2meg block - is trival to code now as can just hardcode a block to switch on.
4) BitcoinCore could release a patch that speeds up the difficulty reduction (like BitcoinCash did) to avoid issue of slow block issue. But obviously massively reduce security of blockchain!

The latest news is block 494784.

I'm a little surprised it's as high as 90% still flagging intention for NYA/Segwit2x, but yeah, it's currently 930 out of the last 1000 blocks. There were some claims that miners using Bitcoin Core were only using the BIP91 patch to avoid a split, but if that were true, surely they would have stopped signalling intention for larger blocks by now? SegWit is locked in and definitely happening, so they can easily back out of the NYA if they genuinely weren't keen on it and just have SegWit by itself. At the risk of repeating "intention" too much, that's all it currently is. There's nothing stopping them from changing their minds any time between now and November. Are some of the miners possibly playing mind games and making it look like 2x has more support than it really does? Are some of them maybe waiting until the last minute to drop the 2x intent? And will some of them start changing their minds a little faster if the next Core release goes through with the proposal to disconnect nodes signalling 2x?

So many questions, heh. The plot continues to thicken. Grin

Quote from: MetaVerde on August 16, 2017, 03:58:09 PM

Hmmm.

Do I need to split out my Bitcoin Cash from my Bitcoin into new wallets before the next fork?

Huh

Then we shouldn't ever throw away old wallets.
I can see where this would get old fast.

If you hold a bitcoin (BTC) balance on any address before the November fork, you'll have the same amount on the newly forked 2x chain.

You don't have to worry about moving any BCC/BCH because that's already on its own separate chain, completely unrelated to the SegWit2x one. You can keep those funds on any address you want.

The SegWit2x fork will have literally zero impact on your BitcoinCash holdings (with the possible exception of maybe stealing some of the hashpower from that chain, making it potentially slower to transact in BitcoinCash)

You're surprised that companies that can be sued are standing by their commitments that keep them from being sued? I'm more surprised bitcoiners don't have the faintest understanding of keeping business commitments. Of COURSE they are all going to 2X. They agreed and signed that they would. Any loss of value to others for going back on that commitment would lose them a court case.