Quote from: Billy Bunter on August 24, 2017, 02:57:27 PM

Quote from: aminorex on August 24, 2017, 12:52:48 PM

Quote from: luz3rrul3z on August 24, 2017, 11:39:48 AM

What would be the assumed price of XMR by the end of the year. I am seriously thinking long-term. Any loose prediction will do...
Thanks in advance.

DNMs volumes should approach 0.1% of the global black markets by the end of 2018, I.e. roughly 25bn$/an. In mid-2013 SR1 was turning over about $1bn/an. Since no major DNM can risk BTC, ZEC, or ETH in the future, the only coin with the liquidity to support DNMs will be XMR. Since pq=mv, and pq and m are known (estimated) factors, that leaves v. If the velocity of XMR is roughly the same as SR1 era BTC, then at the end of 2018 XMR would trade at roughly 2500 $us, averaging over any periods of excess volatility. I prefer to assume that either half of the DNMs are honeypots using BTC or ZEC, or that the velocity of XMR is more than twice the velocity of BTC in the SR1 era, in which case $1000 would be a better estimate.

Rational discounting in a negative real interest rate environment isn't very...relevant; thus, the only discounting factor is risk of model error.

End of 2017 or 2018? Your response is unclear since the OP was referring to 2017.

I was talking about 2018 because I don't think any DNM can build the kind of confidence that AB or SR1 had in 4 months. I could be wrong: DHL seems to have all the confidence required, but they have not shown a willingness to open up the floodgates for a large flow of goods and services - AFAIK it is all invite-only.

To me the model prediction seems inescapable, and the only question is how long it takes for SEC to prosecute a few ETH ICOs in order too drive a lot of speculative capital out of BTC, BCH, ETH into real digital cash.

Either way, the money flows are coming. Since I don't know when, I just stay all-in XMR. We do know this:. When BTC reached thus liquidity level it drew attention from buy-siders. Expect the same for XMR at this level.