Quote from: inca on May 07, 2015, 09:49:20 AM

Hey maths genius, care to show how this technique worked at predicting the future when backtested on the previous bubbles?

Speculative fractal patterns are highly up to the arbitrary interpretation of the chart-holder. I attempt to chart possible scenarios matching up past patterns of tops, crashes, and intersections with major indicators (200day EMA for example) and rule out scenarios as market disproves them over time, narrowing the possibilities to just a few, or even just 1.

This is not the sole basis of my trading, I use other indicators too.

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Here is one of my works from 2013. Due to a variety of analysis, that chart included, I did end up going all in at $75 ish on the big capitulation of June 2013. Lovely right?

Quote from: fontas on May 13, 2013, 08:36:55 AM

:Charts:

I took the 2011 bubble chart, overlayed it on the current chart to match the top, bottom, sucker's rally and resistance levels, and appended the extra portion to the current graph. Very simple TA but it has made me extravagant amounts of money so far.

In one month we shall compare the actual chart to this chart, and they might be very similar.

"But this time it's different!"

Thoughts?

http://i.imgur.com/gtyiKji.png

Quote from: fontas on May 13, 2013, 11:17:34 PM

Of course there remains the possibility of a similar situation to August 2012. This situation would take BTC on a rally to 180 and then a flatline.

However, note that this activity occured when the price of BTC was close to the all-time logarithmic trend line.
Also, November was the block reward halving event. Thus this rally was further fueled by the halving of the BTC supply.
Given the current high price of BTC relative to changes in infrastructure, as well as the deviation from the logarithmic trendline and lack of block halving, this possibility remains very unlikely.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zig6-hourzczsg2012-05-19zeg2012-12-12ztgSzm1g40zm2g25zl
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=360&i=6-hour&c=1&s=2012-05-19&e=2012-12-12&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=40&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&