Quote from: andrisz on August 31, 2017, 08:29:03 AM

Hi HR!

I've followed the thread from the beginning, but then haven't been on bitcoin talk for a while. Now I came here mainly to see how you've been doing and was pleasantly surprised of how well you got over the correction in July.

Anyway - the main reason I'm reading is to learn from you and so details on your strategies are gold nuggets for me. I have some questions regarding your post on August 28th.

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As mentioned before in this thread, the rules for more investment grade stuff (what I dont care to become a bagholder with) in a bear market are to limit them to a 5% swing position [...]

OK, let's slow down a [Suspicious link removed] position" - do you mean that in the sense of time? I.e. that in swing trading you trade for days, weeks or even longer vs day trading, which usually happens within a day. If so - isn't all your positions swing positions? I understood that you don't do daytrading?

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[...] that can also have a 2.5% trading amount added to it

Is this for more speculative trades? Can you give an example of how you had swing position and then trading position for some currency?

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Ive got us in an intermediate term upswing at present though, so those figures are now doubled.

Do you mean that by your calculations we're in bear market, but in upswing, therefore you adjust your bear market rules to allow double of those limits?

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Whenever they get to 30% portfolio percentages, they get rebalanced.

Hmm.. why 30%? If you allow 5% for swing position + 2.5% for trading position and then double it, it's 15%?

Also - why do you think we're in a bear market now? In think we could see a nice run until we get closer to November.

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I had all my fiat equivalent in SBD, not USDT.

This is probably a total noob question, by why are they better than just USD?

Thanks!

Hi andrisz, I've answered your questions below.

1) Swing trading: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/swingtrading.asp Id say it could be a bit longer than just a few days though. For me its more about targets than time. Swing trades have targets that are higher, something that usually translates into more time. A scalp is a scalp regardless of how much time it takes because Im looking for a much smaller move, yes, hopefully in a shorter period of time, but if it takes longer, it takes longer. I dont do day trading, but if my sell goes off 5 minutes after I buy, I dont complain. Whereas with a larger move, a swing trade that is good for a much bigger gain, Im originally thinking longer term, but if it comes tomorrow, thats the way it is. In my view the main difference is the objective youre shooting for, the difference between accumulation with larger mark up possibilities, and looking to jump on a short term pop.

2) Yes. Swing position + scalp position. Examples here in this thread.

3) Yes.

4) 15% would be the investment max, 30% would be a profit growth mark, but its not set in stone; its a guideline something to seriously consider. The idea is to be able to let profits run. If you dont do that, then youre going to have serious problems seeing any real growth, and with the severe risk management restrictions I already have in place, wed really be limiting things to compound interest equivalents if we were to keep balancing anything close to original investment size.

As for "bear market rules", did you look at the second graphic (1st set of charts) I mentioned to ltcdude yesterday? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1936239.msg20841065#msg20841065 What does that look like to you? Alts have been struggling since the beginning of June. Yes there have been some Alts that have risen substantially, but they are a lot fewer than in the spring. The overall Alt market cap has risen to significant new all time highs in USD terms, but it has got a lot more selective, and in BTC terms, I think wed be hard pressed to find an Alt that has gone to new highs (LSK is one that I can think of off the top of my head, but, well, after taking a quick look, I see that XMR has too). And with BTC getting pretty heady, Im cautious. Thats why Im generally operating under bear market rules with a very short term suspension of those rules while BTC runs higher. Also, one small detail to note: operating under bear market rules does not necessarily mean that were in a bear market. In fact, Ive never said were in a bear market it was a correction, sideways for BTC more or less, and a bigger drawdown for most Alts, and bear market rules were well applied. That having been said, I do think that a bona fide bear market is not too far down the road.

5) With USD youve got tax implications to contemplate that can set you back almost as much as simply holding to the bottom of the bear.