Quote from: DieJohnny on September 09, 2017, 03:11:46 AM

Quote from: machouno on September 07, 2017, 02:07:22 PM

Hi there

I just registered to this forum in order to participate to this conversation which is surprisingly consistent ater 260 pages of posts

I would like to ask your opinion about the following. Having entered the market recently (about 3 months), I'm actually wondering if it is really time for accumulating. It seems to me that the entire crypto market is in a bubble, and that most of alt coins are highly overrated.

Therefore I'm really wondering if/when the bubble will pop, and if it happens then it would seem the right moment to really accumulate.

Very curious about your thoughts !

I completely understand your view. I frankly am not sure if I were new to crypto if I would heavily invest after this amazing 18 month run. But I do think you need to have investments in crypto regardless. Bear markets in the grander scheme of things do not last very long. It is entirely possible that you see a correction as much as 75% on any crypto, however, for the top 10 coins I think that correction only last 6 months max before you return to profitability.

What I am doing and have done is diversifed the percentage of my portfolio into Crypto that I could personally tolerate knowing I was in it for the long haul (5 years), 30% of my crypto holdings are typically in some alt or another. Then buy monthly at those same ratios what I could afford. Continue for 5 years and retire. I figure I have a couple more years before I retire as I have been doing this for three years.

You are likely to come to faulty and inaccurate conclusions if you amorphously lump your investment in "crypto" and fail to distinguish your analysis of bitcoin as compared to the other pump and dumps that are plentiful out there and having coattail effects with bitcoin and even producing some of their own dynamics that can fuck around with being able to determining exactly what is going on in bitcoin proper.

I don't know what the fuck you are talking about when you try to say bear market or bull market in terms of crypto generally, because the pump and dump effect of a lot of the crap-ass various ICOs on bitcoin is a relatively new phenomenon in terms of proportions, and sure we should attempt to understand some of this but putting too much emphasis on various cryptos is like trying to suggest that the tail is wagging the dog, and is a faulty perspective.

On the other hand, if you isolate your analysis to bitcoin rather than lumping in a bunch of bullshit into it, then yeah, we can see bitcoin in a bullish market since late 2015 - however, we could not really be sure that we were in a bullish market until about May 2016, when we saw BTC prices break above $500 and stay there for good. So bitcoin has been in a bullish market, ever since late 2015 and seems to be inclined to stay in a bullish market for the near future - at least for the next 6 months or so.... of course we can watch whether bitcoin stays in a bullish market, and sometimes it can take 6 months or more to verify if either the tide has turned (whether that is flattening out or reversing), which like I already suggested does not seem too likely at that present time and under the present conditions.