Quote from: rangedriver on September 17, 2017, 05:03:12 PM

Quote from: Majormax on September 17, 2017, 03:38:25 PM

Yes of course there is a correction coming (or a Dark Age). That is a very clear trend in the BTC (for 6 years), and now other Crypto charts. Lots of ppl pretend it won't happen, and they will suffer the most with lack of preparation.

Each huge wave up is followed by a retracement to just above the previous high. In this wave up, the start was around $300 on BTC, the high looks like $5000, and the previous high was $1200, which is where it is heading now, and will mark the floor of this current downtrend. The waves last a couple of years on average, but there is a wide variation.

$259.34 (2013 Q2 peak)

x 4.48446

$1163 (2013 Q4 peak)

x 4.28116

$4979 (2017 Q3 peak)

x 4.38281 (averaged multiplier)

$21822 (target peak)

******

$1163 (2013 Q4 peak)

/ 4.4051

$264.01 (average floor = ~2013 Q2 peak)

$4979 (2017 Q3 peak)

/ 4.39024 (averaged multiplier)

$1134.10 (target average floor = ~2013 Q4 peak)

Thing is from my experience once markets show this sort of pattern to the extent it is recognizable they end up getting frontrun, or baked into investor consciousness and ironically they then dissipate. About the time people discover the path to "easy money" and cheerfully get on it the cliff catches them by surprise.

In my opinion this is our current conundrum. We do not know if it's going to be the same this time. Which kind of clif (if there is one) is coming? The kind we fall off of and die? Or the kind we stand at the base of cursing we sold all our climbing gear because we were sure of the big bad bear. (Much words! Such mixed metaphor! Wow!)

Differences from 2014...

1. The crypto market has matured to the point that we are seeing serious coverage in the financial media
2. We no longer have a single point of failure (darkmarkets/gox)
3. The alt market is a serious part of the cryptosphere. This is good and bad because:
a. Legitimate projects have sprung up to either blossom into their own right or at least provide a testbed for BTC (monero, litecoin)
b. Speculative projects have come which have an effect of being a mixed blessing in the crypto space (ETH)
c. ICOs. Sad

And all the scammy pyramid schemes that are reminding us of the dotcom bubble but a sleazy version
4. Tech has advanced with hardware wallets, payment gateways, etc.
5. BTC is maturing as it collectively decides how to handle it's limitations.
6. We are on the threshold of 2nd layer functionality.

So my first question is... can we really expect another 2-3 year bear? It just seems so unlikely considering the momentum we now see...

Second question: what does this mean for Monero?

If Bitcoin pulls back, XMR will too probably. But XMR is uncoupled from bitcoin in a special way. It's kind of like Texas. When the USA experiences financial turbulence there is always some connection to the oil markets. And Texas usually is insulated from the sorts of chaos other large economies within the US face. The housing bubble was an example. Housing prices in TX were more stable during that time. In a similar way the utility XMR offers may stabilize it at least against BTC both because of the unique use cases (eg. darkmarkets) as well as the potential value transfer case where for example Chinese crypto flight could end up in in part going to XMR for privacy sake.

Interesting times indeed. Thanks for the curse, China.