Quote from: Carlsen on September 18, 2017, 07:11:36 AM

The government in China has certain goals on why they do what they do.
First of all they want to keep money in the country and strengthen their economy.
Mining bitcoins contributes to that goal. The mined coins can be sold, even abroad, and the money flows back into the country.
I think as well that even if the mining power based in China breaks away, bitcoin might become a bit slower, but far away from not functional anymore.

Absolutely no way that China will ban mining.

As you point out, mining is not an effective way to move capital abroad (to subvert Chinas capital controls), because for every $1 invested in mining, more many more dollars in value are returned which extracts value from abroad. Mining is net inflow of capital to China.

China mainly wanted to shut down rampant speculation and the ability for people to convert Yuan to BTC easily and take the capital out of China. ICOs were siphoning capital out of China and into the pockets of scammers. The elite in every country will not allow a bunch of script kiddies to take $billions of the domestic economies those elite control.

After Chinas election in October, some are speculating that China will reinstate BTC exchanges with more stringent regulations on KYC, AML, and limits on volume for different levels of KYC compliance per user. The BTC trading ban was probably a saving face political show of force before the upcoming Communist Party congress. Its to show the party hasnt lost control (remember in Asia saving face is critical, even if the reality is different).

China will not let ICOs to come back, except in some registered form similar to what Overstock/TZero is proposing, which has the downsides documented at that link. The get-rich-quick, free-for-all, pumpy dumpy ICO era is ending. So this question is will this drag proof-of-work issued coins down also? PoW-issued are not securities, but the ICO craze has driven a lot of money into our ecosystem and especially by China last winter 2016 when markets often go on holiday in West.

Im expecting BTC to rebound because everyone is so pessimistic. However, it appears that Australia, South Korea and others are banning ICOs also, so perhaps weve already topped out (see linked chart)? Yet looking at the price action since South Korea announced an intention to ban ICOs yesterday, appears the markets are shrugging it off, at least Bitcoin. If we have another move out of alts into BTC, that will then signal another move up for alts since they tend to lag BTC on the way up. Someone has said volume has been weak on this rise (I did not confirm it), so is this caution that will return to FOMO fever or are we in a deadcat bounce?

Seems the ICOs such as NEO are getting very strong recoveries, so perhaps the FOMO market is going to stick out their middle finger to the regulators and dare them to actually delist tokens in many major nations. Perhaps the party wont be over until the fat lady sings?

Also I still ponder if we have the possibility of a massive theft of SegWit transactions event on the horizon with LTC and BCH being the potential benefactors. This theory says BTCSegWit will collapse in price and then BCH, LTC and Satoshis original BTC protocol will rise up. This would be massive chaos in addition to the ICO bans coming and the SegWit2X split.

Frankly this is very difficult to analyse but it appears very chaotic and very risky. Yet that is probably the time to buy. Has maximum fear of an ICO implosion already been priced in? Perhaps we need the SEC and Australia and others take enforcement actions against ICOs before we see the worst of the selloff? Or those enforcement actions could come gradually and the market transitions and shrugs it off?

Can any one offer some sober and well reason points that dont just attack me for fringe viewpoints when in fact I have routinely ended up being proven correct over time. Remember when I was shouting to buy LTC at 0.006 BTC (and less than $10) and then LTC did exactly what I said going to $50, correcting, then going to $75+.

Charting seems to indicate that LTC and BCH could triple, but we could have significant declines interim. Increasing volatility seems to be the only constant factor.

Thoughts? (please everyone be respectful of each other, this is not a boxing ring)

Quote

If the DOW closes below Armstrong's number of 21431, I'll be selling more crypto.

Martin Armstrong is stating (to paid subscribers) that either DJIA solidifies above 21000, else we could have a SLINGSHOT correction, that initiates a blastoff to new ATHs above 27000+. Either way, the 27000+ level will be breached over the next year or two. I agree crypto has a related pattern, that we either bottom here above $3000, else we could see a SLINGSHOT correction much lower, but in either case crypto is headed much higher over the next year or two. However, the composition of which tokens gain and lose could change significantly with the banning (forced delisting on exchanges) of unregistered ICO issued tokens underway already in several nations and the uncertainty over which fork of BTC will win.

So MA is thinking maybe a peaking on DJIA at 22463 and decline in the week Oct. 2 or Oct. 16. If crypto is macroeconomically correlated (something about risk assets?), so perhaps BTC is going to reassault $5100 before a drawnout correction?

LTCBTC appears to me to be in a bullish triangle (wedge) preparing for a massive breakout to the upside over next months. 0.01 is the resistance of the triangle, which has been rock solid. Wed need to have seen lower lows on LTCBTC in order to be in a bearish mode, but we havent. Our minimum upside was 0.03 BTC which has not been achieved yet.

Also thus far this correction is less severe than the 2013/4 crash. That Mt.Gox driven flash crash caused BTCUSD to decline more than 60% and LTCUSD more than 80%. So far on this correction, BTCUSD only declined 40% and LTCUSD only 60%. So possibly we might have another leg up still or at least rising back to a double-top.

If we still have to see the original predictions of $1500 and $150 for LTC and BCH, then that would put BTC topping out at 0.03 - 0.05 w.r.t. to LTC so BTC reaching no higher than ~$5000. Perhaps BTC will double-top in the $5100s which was my original top price.

BCHUSD and BCHBTC have a similar bullish wedge pattern as LTCBTC (whereas LTCUSD has a similar blowoff topping pattern as BTC). This indicates a possibility that BTC and LTC are moving towards their tops, and then BCH will lag and rise magnificiently. Which coincides with the fanatical theory about BTCSegWit dying a fiery death. If BCH went to $1500 while BTC declined to $3000, that would a 5X gain in BCHBTC.