Quote from: conv3rsion on May 21, 2013, 02:17:33 AM

Quote from: JamesTaylor on May 21, 2013, 02:15:57 AM

Can some1 explain why is it going to be useful to know ASICMiner mining hashrate? I guess only curiosity.

Helps to estimate expected dividends, or at least the portion that comes from mining and not sales.
Helps to verify that ASICMiner is currently mining at the rate they claim to, which builds confidence

I don't disagree with you entirely, and I could be wrong about this but I'm coming to the conclusion that it won't matter too much deducing what the hash rate is as:

- AM have no incentive to publicize it
- solo hash rate will change all the time anyway
- earnings from solo mining are what matters, not hash rate

Tied up in that are some assumptions about cost of manufacture and operation; however if we assume that they are both fairly low we can just come up with an estimate to turn revenue from solo mining into earnings. Shareholders are just used to being able to assess their expected income from hash rate because the pool stats are visible.

I am suggesting that while it would be nice to know the solo hash rate, I don't think it matters that much as the blockchain will tell us what solo revenue is anyway and we can deduce earnings from that.

Prediction: when gen-2 ASICs arrive, they will be deployed to solo mining operations first. Information about this will initially be confidential, perhaps for several months. Public pools will continue to add legacy gen-1 hardware until it is all deployed/sold. When gen-2 ASICs are being manufactured in volume the old gen-1 kit will be sold off cheaply. Then gen-2 kit will start to appear in pools, then it will be offered to the public. Rinse, lather, repeat.