Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Top 5 reasons why I predict a bitcoin bear market in Q4/2017
by
CoinsCoinsEverywhere
on 27/09/2017, 06:40:54 UTC
Agree or Disagree?
Yes.  Grin

First, what do you mean by bear market?  A common definition of a bear market in the stock market is when a financial instrument is down at least 20% from its high.  If you use that definition, we're already there.  If not, are we talking about the price being lower at the end of Q4 than at the beginning?  Or are we talking about another move lower, below $3k?  The details of exactly what happens are anyone's guess.  The author of that article gives compelling reasons for why bitcoin could go lower in the short term, but ultimately it's up to the market, and so I think it's important to look at price and volume to see what the market is telling us.

Here's my take: we had a blink-and-its-over crash and bounce off $3k, and we've been stuck in a (rather large) trading range since then.  I feel like the market is looking for a reason to go higher, but it's having trouble finding one right now.  Without something significantly positive, we're going to have trouble breaking up into the mid $4000s.  Many times, jarring market moves will have some sort of follow-through (e.g., crash-bounce-crash).  Additionally, a bounce on weak volume, as pointed out in the article, shows little interest in reversing the trend (and making it positive again), which does point to a fragile market that could easily crash again on more bad news.  Market participants need a reason to buy.  Without one, I think that the odds currently favor another leg down.