Quote from: phishead on October 01, 2017, 03:24:09 PM

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on September 30, 2017, 09:39:52 PM

Quote from: birr on September 30, 2017, 09:29:14 PM

S.O.P. for Monero.
Look at what just happened. Early August, XMR lost about a third of its value in less than a week. Bet you were discouraged then, too. Guess what? Super bear trap.
Immediately the xmr/btc exchange rate proceeded to triple in a matter of days.
Don't let Composite Man psych you out.
Feel like selling? May be your chance to buy.
I get pretty annoyed myself at the way the price seems to move with the deliberate attention of faking you out or just pissing you off totally.
Yeah, it goes down like a lead balloon at times. Look at what happens if you hold on, though.

Yeah, I've been around for a while... I'm familiar with the way XMR can be very fickle from a speculation perspective.

It is what it is, and at times it is tiresome.

But emotions are exactly as fickle as markets. I've learned to keep them in check. I can control emotions even if I cannot markets. But I will not pretend I do not believe XMR is exceedingly undervalued against XBT and the current value of USD.

This just reminded me of this 10/10 post by the legendary AmericanPegasus two years ago; this kept me from doing stupid things when I was just getting introduced to crypto after I stumbled on /r/Monero... hopefully it will prevent some people from doing potentially stupid things right now.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3mwx9g/if_you_want_to_understand_how_to_make_money/

Quote from: AmericanPegasus

In my early 20's, my primary goal in life had fully transitioned into "get laid" (like a good biological member of my species). At the time, there was no Tinder and online dating was seen as the habitat of the lowest of the low.

What was the Tinder of 2005? The club scene. (stay with me, we have a point here).

At my favorite club there was a sign at the front, "Don't be a sheep; NO ONE is busy at 10pm. Have a seat, have a drink, and be patient." I always admired this sign, and as me and my buddy Ramon navigated the complex world of convincing women in clubs that you were worth sleeping with, we were inadvertently learning game theory.

You see, on any given weekend night there is a certain amount of people that are going to "go out". This includes all manner of people and you really can't exert much control over how many people decide to 'go out' in a large enough city. This is best related to how much 'fiat' decides to enter the cryptocurrency universe. That's pretty much outside any individual speculators ability to control: you just have to hope that conditions slowly swell so that your city is an attractive place that people will want to party.

What can we control? We can control what bar we go to, and we can control how we present ourselves.

It's 9:30 pm: where are you headed? Let's extend the analogy a little bit: pretend all the clubs (you would actually want to party at) have a bouncer out front. To get into this club you're going to have to expend either money to bribe him or time to wait in line. The amount of effort/expense it takes to get through the door is a function of how busy and happening that particular club is.

Now let's say you want to win this 'game' by being seen as 'king of the club'. How do you do this? You come correct (wearing nice clothes). You accurately speculate about where the 'sheep' will flock to once the night kicks off in full swing. And you establish a respected and winning presence there early.

You do not (as that wonderful sign suggested) run from club to club wondering which one will get busy first. You don't care about flirting from asset to asset: your only concern is to position yourself properly in a winning one. The fundamentals will come into play: is this a place that, despite being currently pretty empty, will likely be attractive to lots of people once the night gets kicking? If so, that's where you set up your base. Get a table for cheap/free since there's no one there (remember, we win this particular game by being seen as important even though we are not) and get friendly with the staff since you have time to spare. If you really want to elevate your game, invite a few other people from your social network to hang out there with you - buzz builds buzz.

You might be wrong - that's the downside of taking risks. But if you make good decisions you will almost certainly be better off than the sheep who flirts from experience to experience trying to find the 'right one'. That sheep will spend more time in line (or money bribing their way past) than they will actually bathing in their prize.

So what's my tl;dr point here?

It's 10:00 dude. None of the clubs are busy right now. So get a fucking table, and get to know the bartender. Enjoy yourself before the crowds arrive, because it's gonna be one hell of a night and you do not want to be stuck in that line outside once this place gets in full swing.

I have read this post too in the past : sound, insightfull post with a very well chosen analogy.