Quote from: gentlemand on October 07, 2017, 10:08:47 AM

Bitfinex have stated that for practical reasons S2X won't be Bitcoin - https://www.bitfinex.com/posts/223

Coinbase have acknowledged there'll be two chains if it happens and it may take several days to access them - https://blog.coinbase.com/update-on-the-bitcoin-segwit2x-hard-fork-69426f14bc85

These are two of the biggest players and their actions have confirmed that the NYA thing will do exactly what it aimed to avoid.

let's take closer look, though. bitfinex said this:

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For the time being, BTC will continue to be labeled as Bitcoin, and B2X will be labeled as B2X. This will remain the case unless and until such time that market forces suggest an alternative, more appropriate, labeling scheme for one or both chains.

here's what coinbase said, leaving their options open:

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In the coming weeks nearer to the date of the fork we will provide a more detailed plan for how Coinbase will approach naming the two Bitcoin blockchains.

so, we have an acknowledgment that there will be two blockchains. this is clear enough, and indeed, it's not what the NYA signatories set out to do. at the same time, no one seems to be backing down. in fact, clearly, coinbase is planning to move forward with the fork, and plans to offer full deposit/withdrawal support for both coins within a few days of the fork (compare to ETC or BCH).

no company of note has left the NYA. and all the miners are still signalling -- even f2pool. roger ver has gone off the deep end and is taking the opposite approach to bitfinex, saying that segwit2x will be the default bitcoin blockchain and BTC ticker.

in other words, i'd say that the fork is still likely to happen at this point. i think right out the gate and in the long term, there will be more demand for the legacy chain. however, it will be interesting to see what happens if 90% + (or even a simple majority) of the hashpower does indeed back the fork.

my advice is to trade wisely and do not make this ideological. the safest bet is to hodl both coins or to sell only a small portion of either. the best opportunity will probably play off hash power distribution. i believe the futures market is currently pricing in a fair chance that the fork doesn't happen, and that the miner support behind segwit2x will significantly drop as we approach the fork. i suspect the market may be wrong about both points, though.

bitmain is the wild card -- they could unleash a torrent of hashpower at fork time and they have an interest in the legacy chain being the weaker chain. don't underestimate that.