
I don't really think there is anything like guessing in trading...well because to trade.. you follow the news, market, price of bitcoins , recent events , and then only you make a deal.
Trading is dependent on luck but it itself is not something based soley on it... Because if you are working towards... Being up to date with news and selling only if the price reaches the top I don't think there is anything like guessing.
Because most people who makes profit from trading are the ones who don't guess but follow the market in a strict manner because if you do hold a good amount then guessing itself is like putting your possession to stake and that only lower stake holders generally do..
Of course you're talking about guessing man. All the informations you have do not guarantee that the price will going up or down. After all information you got, you will make a prediction to decide buy or sell right? And your call maybe correct or incorrect , noone can know about it, and it's called "guessing". If things are easy to figure out like you said. Everyone in the world would be rich easy peasy.