Quote from: scalper on May 26, 2013, 09:36:16 PM

Is it discipline to continue trading after 14 consecutive losing trades or is it a lack of self-awareness? Is the losing due to "randomness" or due to changing market conditions that erode system edge? Trading isn't like poker or gambling where the probability is fixed (for example: knowing that there are 52 cards, 13 of each suit, therefore you have X in the deck to make a flush, etc). The game can change the next day.

If you lose a coin flip by calling tails 100 times after 100 attempts, you're probably a sucker if you still think it's a fair coin.

Just something to think about. No right answers...

I would argue that it makes sense to continue trading under the following criteria:
- You have rigorously tested your edge
- You have risk control in place to trade less size during periods of drawdown
- Your method makes intuitive sense

I also would argue that it is simply due to randomness. In my personal trading, I frequently will lose 7-8 trades in a row, but that's because I target a 1:5-20 risk/reward ratio. My win percentage is 30-40% so it is perfectly normal for me to experience consecutive losers.

You're absolutely right: probability isn't fixed in trading - to the frustration of many participants. All you really have is an educated guess based on history.