Quote from: Matthew N. Wright on May 27, 2013, 08:36:02 PM

Quote from: jspielberg on May 27, 2013, 08:33:17 PM

Quote from: Anenome5 on May 27, 2013, 08:21:56 PM

Quote from: Rampion on May 27, 2013, 03:14:33 PM

Correct, I will reformulate that: if batch #3 arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, they won't even break-even IMO.

Even at 35 million they'd break even in 46 days (4-unit with extremely conservative power costs as well).

You are calculating break even in USD... but the Avalon B3 was purchased in BTC. Looks like it would take about 90 days at 35M to break even with no power costs... those BTC, assuming the average difficultly over those 90 days is 35M (I bet it averages higher difficulty). If there was no risk... it wouldn't be any fun eh?

Yea, if someone paid 101BTC for a rig + PSU + shipping, then it wouldn't break even until they got 101BTC back. How long does it take to make 101BTC at current projections? (85Gh/s)

About a month according to this:

http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator

But the difficulty will be higher once you get yours, so maybe a little longer. Even if difficulty quadruples, so you pay it off after 4 months. Everything else after that is profit. 4 months is not unreasonable to see a profit in any investment. I personally think it will be closer to 2 months ROI assuming they start shipping batch 3s in June, right after batch 2. That's just taking yifu at his word which I have no reason to doubt.