Quote from: Goomboo on May 27, 2013, 08:10:08 PM

Quote from: Psikopit on May 27, 2013, 06:07:45 PM

With this method I can trade using a Hourly based EMA. And by the way Im also considering to use 2 EMA base or more in the trading system. Like checking on a 4-hour base to have the trend of the market and selling when the 1-hour base EMA are crossing. Is it an admissible idea?^^ I suppose youll tell me to back test this method. I tried to do so but failed when I needed to use Ninjatrader :/ is any one able to supply me some help or documentation on back testing using ninja or any other tool?

I'm happy to hear that you are profitably trading.

Your idea of looking at the trading system across different timeframes (1-hour, 4-hour) is certainly valid. It's a concept known as "multiple timeframe analysis". It's based on the theory that the trend of any given timeframe will more than likely be influenced by a higher timeframe. In trading jargon, the trend of the higher timeframe is known as the "primary trend". So, the idea would be to only hold BTC on the 1-hour timeframe if the 4-hour timeframe says you should hold as well. Or in trader speak: "Only trade with the primary trend".

I do suggest testing it and you can use Excel, Ninjatrader, or even test it by hand. You can express all of the moving averages in a single time period to make testing easier. For example, the 10 period moving average on the 4-hour chart is the similar to the 40 period moving average on the 1-hour chart.

The general steps in NinjaTrader
-Import the data you're trying to test - it has to be in this format: http://www.ninjatrader.com/support/helpGuides/nt7/index.html?importing.htm
-Create the strategy using NinjaTrader's strategy builder (or code it yourself...strategy tester is pretty easy for most scripts...and NinjaTrader already has a moving average crossover pre-programmed)
-Backtest the strategy across the data you imported using the Strategy Analyzer

Goomboo; you never crease to amaze me both quality of your analysis and your willingness to give it away for free. You make some awesome contributions that you not at all obligated to share. Thank you.

The clear and concise way you present time as it is relevant to trading is the best I've seen this concept described.

In what language do you write analytic code to test current theory and past performance?. Is it the same as your predictive models?

In the rawest of forms, I have found Python to serve these purposes well

Keep up the good work goomboo.