Quote from: Gamah on June 03, 2013, 12:44:22 AM

Quote from: markyminer on June 02, 2013, 07:58:04 PM

So lets forecast from there shall we! Starting @ 0.0104 BTC and $1.27 profit a day for the first 10 days. 1 month profit $38. 3 month profit $90. 1 year profit $155!

M

And $155 * 45 devices = $6975 presuming the price of bitcion doesn't go up.. (why wouldn't it?) what if it rises to ~250/coin stabily? then his profit margin is that much higher.

Takes money to make money.

No gaurentee bitcoin will rise at all in the next 2-3 years. It's a risky business model that relies on increasing prices it can't control to make an investment work. It's a bit like starting a prefab roof construction company that will only make money if house prices and thus the component cost of building houses doubles in the next few years. All forcasting i see only ever accounts for prices rises within RPI or CPI inflation (which is fiddled down).

My company would fund several new dopots to open today if it could gaurentee selling prices of goods bought today would double in price over the next few years!

Like i said I have my risk based on a BFL product to hopefully be delivered this side of Xmas but I factored in a X 10 increase of difficulty (8m to 80m) from the date of order before I commited cash and it still had an ROI good enough in under 5 months @ 30% increase a month.

For sure with human nature this ASIC thing will grow and grow exponetially, as will the difficulty until the BTC earned is less than a $0.01 /kwh and anyone who pays for electricity (this includes all the current big players) are forced to stop mining.

Will be interesting to see at that point if the price rises to respond or if network hashrate just comes offline until the difficulty drops but the transition between these two will mean transactions will crawl along.

This is already happening with Litecoin where low effeiciency GPUs are no longer making money vs power and high efficiency ones like the 7950 are now making less profit that BTC direct but this price is not rising to compensate. I expect a huge drop off of LTC hashing in the next few months unless the price $ rises a lot.

M