As aminorex astutely pointed out, the market won't turn until the bulls capitulate. In the past, the appearance of trolls and FUD was a good indicator of the tides changing, but such market patterns tend to collapse as soon as they're recognized. KeyJockey's post indicates a level of short-term uncertainty that leads me to believe we're about to see the next move up. But then again, I thought that was going to happen three weeks ago and I was wrong.
Welp, if it was easy to predict the market we'd all be millionaires. The line between trading and gambling is almost nonexistent.
I agree and disagree with you at the same time: while you cannot guarantee a rise in price, it is possible to make a very educated guess and be right like 80%-90% of the time (especially when holding for a long time).
That's right, when a coins offers tangible solution to any of the shortfalls in Bitcoin, like the traceability of transactions issue, which Monero is able to checkmate, it means the coin have cornered some market demand and as such, an educated guess would be right, at least 70% of the time and that is certainly good enough for any knowledgeable and skillful trader to end up making some profit.