Quote from: statdude on June 10, 2013, 07:31:51 PM

Quote from: bb999 on June 10, 2013, 01:53:14 AM

Quote from: statdude on June 09, 2013, 09:00:07 PM

Quote from: Vycid on June 07, 2013, 10:47:38 PM

Quote from: TsuyokuNaritai on June 07, 2013, 10:46:50 PM

Interesting. Why do you think they're going to fall?

(Don't worry about dissuading PUT-sellers, the discussion would attract more! Grin

)

I've done some statistics with the rate of difficulty increase and the anticipated hashrate increase. They're overvalued.

(I DON'T think they're gonna fail, but I think the odds of being below 1.7BTC before September are worth up to a 0.1BTC premium.)

Such an option is worth about .25 BTC actually. I'd write you a few at that price at the lowest.

It's worth .25 BTC based on what? That may be a reasonable number but you need to provide some backing not just your opinion stated as if it's fact.

Based on black scholes... with 45 day implied volatility of the stock + estimate of .017ish average div.

Thank you for citing a source, we can debate the usefulness of Black-Scholes separately (implied vs realized volatility for instance) but I appreciate you offering some stat backing