Quote from: dmwardjr on November 14, 2017, 06:29:28 AM

Quote from: DieJohnny on November 14, 2017, 06:14:22 AM

We are still parabolic, I don't understand the pessimism until we break below $5000. $5500 was a perfect bounce off the parabolic curve. We could still be at $10k by Jan 1 2018. I am not thinking downturn in the market for more than 5-9 days unless we go below $5k, then I am bearish for Bitcoin near term.

It's still very possible to make it above $10k by new year "while" breaking $5k beforehand, don't you think?

It's possible, but I would say that breaking $5000 would add significantly more risk to buying or holding in this situation. That may not have been true a few weeks ago, but due to the parabolic shape, it is. I think everyone trading this must know we are headed for a blow off top.... the question is when?

Here's one chart that shows it well: https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/929847184341712896

We bounced right off that lower log scale boundary. To come back and break below? It would look to me like momentum has been lost and we are in for a longer term correction. And that's certainly possible. I made another post about it here:

Quote from: illinest on November 14, 2017, 07:33:35 AM

Quote from: p0wrnflakes on November 14, 2017, 01:32:39 AM

It's not over yet, that's for sure

^^ This is the consensus opinion. I have to admit, my gut reaction is to agree. But I have two thoughts on that:

1) Everyone is seeing the same thing. From the momentum traders to the EW traders, most people see a 3-swing correction coming -- more downside after a bounce. "Everyone" is usually wrong in my experience. That is, if everyone thinks they can buy the dip, there is no dip.

2) The log parabolic structure: The $5400 low was damn near perfectly placed. A bounce and another leg down will start threatening the entire structure, suggesting that the rally is over. At this point, every move up and down should be getting more and more volatile, faster and faster. That's the nature of a parabola. Accordingly, I suspect there won't be another dip before new highs.