Quote from: Rampion on June 15, 2013, 04:37:15 PM

Quote from: mandelmus on June 15, 2013, 03:34:23 PM

Quote from: Rampion on June 15, 2013, 10:15:52 AM

Just think: if KnC sells 1,500 Jupiters and delivers them quickly, when added to the rest of the network each one will probably produce aprox. 1BTC or less per day, and ROI will be unlikely. If they sell +3,000 Jupiters (which seems likely they will do), when they arrive each Jupiter will produce 0,5BTC per day or less, and ROI won't never happen.

1/2 a BTC per day?! That's what worries me, especially for those of us mining without Jupiters and Saturns.

ASIC mining is a very particular beast with very special characteristics. If you want your customers to achieve ROI, you cannot just flood the network as quick as possible. That's why the "first 500 batch get their unit first" approach makes some sense, while the "we can push hundreds of units daily and everybody will receive them almost at the same time" is a kinda worring approach from a preorder customer point of view.

I expect a 2011-like situation, when we had a "mining bubble" that deflated because it wasn't profitable to mine any more. I see the very same situation approaching very fast, the absolute winners have been the ASICminer shareholders and Avalon batch #1 customers, batch #2 will ROI and #3 will breakeven, and I'm afraid that the rest (including BFL customers) will be the "bagholders".

I may be mistaken, but I would appreciate some figures from KnC regarding how many THs they plan to sell, and how fast. As I said earlier this is a very "special" business, if they sell too many units too fast their customers won't achieve ROI unless they hold their mined coins till the exchange rate goes x10, and in that case their profit would have been bigger if they just bought BTC instead of buying KnC miners.

Making closed and limited batches is the best way to try to protect your customers investment in this business.

Even current ASIC manufacturers make some organization like OPEC, due to there are hidden players developing ASICs mining for themselves, that does not work either. One of the most important mission of ASIC miner manufacturers is to promote the bitcoin-only sale to support the price of bitcoin (hence their own income)