Quote from: aminorex on November 22, 2017, 04:42:41 PM

Quote from: CTTE on November 22, 2017, 03:24:50 AM

Agreed, that never seems to be the problem, in my eyes at least, Monero seems to be perpetually under priced!

I don't take such talk very seriously. No judgement - hey, I am pseudonymous because I like to talk smack sometimes myself.

There are ways to put a fundamental value on these things, but any time you start discounting a future expectation the degrees of freedom proliferate, and you can't really marginalize without a proper measure, so it is always a matter if judgement under bounded rationality. When critical facts are unavailable the picture gets very fuzzy very fast. For example, how do you pick your holding horizon? What is the time evolution of the expectation distribution, and what is it's form? What manner of discounting is rational given other assumptions, and what are the distributions on those assumptions? Are there discrete or binary scenarios indicating distinct models? It gets very complicated very fast when you try to account for second- and third-order effects, model switching, etc. - spaghetti plate diagrams, mixing times that go through the roof, computations that can consume millennia of cpu time. Ugh. If you can make complementary arguments for parameter bounds, that can clarify things quite surprisingly, sudoku-style, but usually I just go with my first intuition, then try to pull apart the assumptions, and attack or support them with ratiocination, known or inferred facts, and common sense - the sum of which is quite fallible in comparison with MCMC, but at least provides a timely answer, for the most part. Fisher's law is sound, and creates a moving attractor, but markets are inefficient, mass-market discounting praxis is mostly a mystery, and event-driven jumps remain often unpredictable.

That said, my Fisher estimate for post-MS XMR is 250 USD in April, and 400 a year later, but even if those numbers (probably conservative) are sound attractors, pricing is volatile on speculative runs, accumulation/distribution events, and news, so that I would expect every price between (roughly) 300 and 1000 to be seen at some point in the 4q18-1q19 period. Dramatic changes in the USD political economy seem likely to drive it higher.

Message received, I have been properly put in my place.

Quote from: megadeth on November 22, 2017, 06:30:32 PM

Calmest ATH break I've seen in Cryptoland. People seriously aren't giving a fuck.
No moon rockets, no frenzy. Grin

That may be due to the fact that most other people here think that Monero has been "perpetually under priced" as well.