Quote from: Andretti83 on November 25, 2017, 11:44:18 PM

Quote from: kwukduck on November 25, 2017, 11:24:41 PM

There's little choice when the system becomes unuseable for people to run in the first place.
Already it takes several days to do a full sync on a fast connection with proper hardware.

No, with proper hardware it takes hours.

Moreover, full sync time is pretty much irrelevant to usability. Hardly anyone runs a BTC full node, and with each new feature set the motivation to run a Monero full node will decline as well - e.g., Kovri. If you do, the full sync is unnecessary because you can download a signed image. If you don't want to trust any signed image, a full sync is a one-time event, which is negligible when amortized over running 24/7/365.

Full sync time is not a serious scalability issue. Storage is a very temporary issue because storage tech is racing ahead even while Moore's law is peering out. My phone has plenty of NAND flash already for several years to come. The most serious issue is bandwidth, and there are several technological solutions specific to XMR under review which can compress bandwidth requirements very nicely. There is no obvious order-of-magnitude technological advance pipeline for general purpose bandwidth, not such as there is for storage, but network tech won't stand still either - not as long as fundamental physical limitations remain far away. And again, thus is only significant for those few of us who are well-motivated to run full nodes.

In short, scalability issues won't impinge on Monero usability for a long time, if ever.

Quote from: explorer on November 25, 2017, 04:54:06 AM

Are you anticipating a crash of BTC soon? If you subscribe to the theory that 20k/BTC could be as soon as next summer( seems fantastic, but is really not so far out), that would put XMR at 20K+ on the same timeline? A far more fantastic idea!
Or have I misunderstood your meaning entirely?

Facepalm. Looking at that comment I realize now that those figures are obsolete, made stale by new data. Those central estimates were made in March. When facts change, estimates need to be made afresh. I apologize for reporting obsolete estimates. I will stop doing that now, until I can provide newer estimates on the basis of statistically valid, or at least plausible, methology - and on modelling best practices.

Quote from: KiXiNiT on November 25, 2017, 10:22:02 AM

... the scenario where Monero is banned from a government level.

Not going to happen in the U.S., where the Supreme Court has determined that there is a fundamental and inalienable right to privacy, protected by constitutional guarantees. Not as long as the court lets Roe v. Wade stand, at least. I can't tell you anything about the EU with confidence, but I suspect they protect privacy rights with equal vigor. Between them, the EU and US provide the bulk of the economical uses of Monero. Penetration into Asia is embryonic - despite Chinese capital flight being an obvious, and massive, use case.

Quote from: Bybox on November 26, 2017, 04:21:16 AM

It's always difficult to decide.I think that XMR / BTC will fall slowly while the BTC will increase and thus keep the value of XMR in USD stable. Monero is a very strong altcoin and very well known. They have a lot of supporters and an active community. I made a lot of profit, many of my trading friends said that monero will skyrocket at the end of this year, and it's a good opportunity to invest immediately.

I think the short term depends mostly on FOMO during attempts to front-run the deployment of multisig, which is too predictable not to game, and consequent increases in DNM adoption, which is less accurately predictable, unless you are an insider. I suspect multisig will be a sell-the-news event, due this, but sellers are likely to feel much regret when actual DNM adoption and organic growth in the DNM sectors force a rise on fundamentals. Oh well - their loss is our gain. And of course all of us in the peanut gallery may be quite surprised by sudden developments in, e.g. Globee. I just can't justify reducing my portfolio share of cold storage Monero for some time to come, because I would almost certainly miss these jumps on catalysts.