Quote from: yogg on November 28, 2017, 08:55:53 AM

Quote from: iluvbitcoins on October 18, 2017, 12:18:03 PM

Now, if I place a 0.06BTC there's a 50.5% chance I'll lose
If I lose, I place a 0.12BTC bet, 0.505*0.505= 25.5% chance I'll lose
If I lose, I place a 0.24BTC bet, 0,255025*0,505= 12.88% chance
If I lose, I place a 0.48BTC bet, 0,128787625*0,505= 6.5% chance I'll lose

If I lose, I have a total loss of 0.48+0.24+0.12+0.06 (+0.03) = 0.9BTC (+0.03)

Is it worth it?
Should I cut my losses o.o

Odds of me losing 20 bets in a row should be 1 : 860 000
Which, with me having 500k bets, doesn't sound very good

Hello iluvbitcoins,

Sorry for not reading the whole thread, but it seems like you got yourself trapped into the gambler's fallacy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Quote

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or that, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature).

We humans, we need balance for stability. When some event happens, we believe it will somehow behave to make it right.
On the roulette wheel, it should be red and black alternating each spin, in a perfect world.

However things don't work that way.
You can look at probabilities (like your list of bets to place to make yourself whole) and be enticed to act.
But don't forget that each spin you take is ultimately a 50% chances to win roll.

The game don't care how much spins you've lost before.

IMO, this is dangerous to continue and you should stop your betting streak.
Just my 2 sats. Take care !

I think there's some issue to that as well as you probably know if you spin the roulette will 1 million times you'll get a certain % on each color and the next 1 million spins you make will end up being the same more or less. I agree that in a short term or small sample size chasing losses is a bad idea, but looking at the bigger picture and several thousands bets/rounds it can even out.

Now I use roulette as a sample as I'm not too informed on dice and how that works.. Either way I thought he should try and win back his losses, which he did, and he got it back Cheesy

.